El Kabeir - Withers Runaway - Super Screener
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El Kabeir – Withers Runaway

 

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

Saturday, February 7, 2015

G3 Withers Stakes

This Saturday we get back on the 2015 Kentucky Derby points qualifiers with 10 points going to the winner of the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes and the winner of the G3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. The Withers Stakes features a handy field of seven 3 year-olds going the 1 1/16 miles distance. Like the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, the Withers is headlined by a prohibitive favorite, #7 El Kabeir. This relatively experienced colt will have it his own way in this race as he just towers over this field with absolutely dominant early energy reserves. #4 Tencendur offers quite a bit of value and as other presser types chase #7 El Kabeir, it is this one that will pass tired horses late to make an impact in the exotics. Coming out of the same maiden race as #4 Tencendur we find #2 Far From Over, the Todd Pletcher trainee. Ran a gutsy race to prevail over a stout MSW field to win his racing debut. #1 Classy Class will benefit from the drop from the1 1/8 miles distance contested in his last to today’s 1 1/16th.

El Kabeir is a colt currently ranked #5 in the Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby Top 50 Contenders ranking.

The Super Screener will be putting a premium on pace advantage and will be considering the potential collapse of early energy distribution types that try to go with El Kabeir. Super Screener is also looking for a horses with a bit of energy distribution in the late pace category. Based on this criterion, the Super Screener assessment is as follows:

WIN CONTENDERS

#7 El Kabeir 2-5

BOARD HITTERS

#4 Tencendur 12-1

#2 Far From Over 5-1

#1 Classy Class 3-1

Let’s break down the Withers Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Santa Anita– G3 Withers Stakes

Field Size = 7

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 1

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 2

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 3

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 91; Second Call = 98; Final = 98

Projected Pace:  First Call = 92; Second Call = 93; Final = 98

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Favors horses with superior early energy distribution

Morning Line Favorite: El Kabeir (CURRENT HRN RANKING: 5th)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: El Kabeir, Tencendur, Far From Over

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Tencendur

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = B+

 

POST RACE RECAP

On a day of solid racing the Withers was not exception.  With the compromised start, it appeared the aptly named, Far From Over, was not going to be a factor in this race.  Classy Class lead a close-to-par pace with El Kabeir, the prohibitive favorite, engaging in a duel with that one from the half mile pole to mid stretch.  While El Kabeir won that battle, Far From Over won the war by passing them all with a rush (stunning BRIS Late Pace figure of 112) to grab the victory and the Kentucky Derby 10 qualifying points

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/AQU020715USA8.pdf

WINNER: Far From Over

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                                 1st Call = 91; 2nd Call = 98; Final = 98

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:       1st Call = 92; 2nd Call = 93; Final = 98

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:               1st Call = 88; 2nd Call = 97; Final = 96

TRACK BIAS: None

TOUGH TRIP: Far From Over appeared to lose all chance spotting his rivals six lengths at the start resulting from a really bad stumble out of the gate.  Jockey did not use him and he recovered and then showed lightening fast turn of foot in the stretch to pass all for the win.

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: Far From Over

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: B+

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: B+