Empire Showcase CASHES - Super Screener
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Empire Showcase CASHES

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Sleepy Hollow Stakes

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While the Super Screener targets stakes races with both Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup implications, our other mission is to screen for races that will provide wagering value for the horse player.  In screening the Belmont Saturday card, for example the Sleepy Hollow was the one that emerged as a high-return potential race as it featured so many new variables including a bunch of 2-year-olds here stretching out to a route for the first time.  Usually a perplexing sort of race for horse players and one in which some Super Screener screening can come in handy.

 

While it is a challenge to predict the final post time odds for horses in a race 48 hours in advance, we had no idea that the public would let #8 Pat On the Back go off at an unbelievable gift of 20-1!  We thought 10-1 would offer incredible value.  Here’s what we had to say about this horse:

 

#8 Pat On the Back possesses a similar energy distribution profile to #9 Mr. Buff and trainer Kenny McPeek is very strong on these stretch out value plays.

 

(Pat On the Back) Perfect, super balanced energy distribution profile for this stretch out.  Will sit the ideal trip on the outside mid pack and will slowly release energy late to grind through the stretch impressively.  Top win contender.

 

Another top Super Screener contender pick, #10 Tellmeafookystory, the only horse in the race with previous route experience, delivered on the Super Screener prediction of running fastest of all despite the moderate pace set by #8 Pat On the Back to finish a game second.  Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about #10 Tellmeafookystory:

 

#10 Tellmeafookystory out of the Pletcher barn will be running fastest of all down the lane and the lone horse with the incredibly important route experience.  He gets the hot pace he needs and sprint stretchers will be backing up late as he passes the weakest of those foes.  Certain to hit the board and a win here is not out of the question but he will be far, far back early.

 

(Tellmeafookystory) No speed but will be passing tiring stretch-out horses.  Has that invaluable route experience and he ran a vicious final quarter in his last.  Most reliable board hitter and another that will provide big value.  Use “under”.

 

#7 Runaway Lute was highly favored by the Super Screener (and the public) but like in the G1 Hopeful he finished dead last after participating in the pace early.  Clearly, there is a problem with this colt, perhaps a breathing problem, which is often the case with good horses that just stop like this.  It will be interesting to see what connections do next.
In the end, the suggested wagers for this race hit on a couple of Trifecta tickets returning nearly $1,400!

Empire Classic

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This race developed pretty much as expected.  #1 Wake Up in Malibu and #5 Hit It Once More would duel and our top three Super Screener choices would pass them and make up the Trifecta.  The winner, #6 Royal Posse, is just custom made for this race as a New York bred with pressing speed.  Here’s what we had to say about this 5 year-old gelding:

 

No question, #6 Royal Posse is the top board hitter and a horse to work around in your wagers.

 

(Royal Posse) As consistent as they come and our most reliable board hitter.  Has not been out of the Exacta in his past 10 starts and is 9 for 10 at this distance.  Perfect energy distribution profile for the pace set up.  Solid choice with these.
Looking back at the suggested wagers with 20/20 hindsight, just flipping the one/two positions in our Trifectas in Wager Bundle 3 would have been the way to go but no one got rich on this race anyway with the chalky 1-2 finish.  The Super Screener $7 Exacta and $1 Trifecta did hit for about 150 bucks.

G2 Raven Run

The only thing that the Super Screener got right about this race was that off all the stakes races being run on Saturday, this one would produce big value, and indeed, it did just that.  Sometimes you just kick yourself after a bad beat in that you could see it was “hittable” with just a slightly different approach.  This was not one of those races.  The 2nd and 3rd place finishers were ranked as our bottom two horses.  Lightstream was definitely a win threat but the Super Screener had more conviction with Curlin’s Approval and Southern Girl who ended up 4th and 6th, respectively.  

 

This will happen from time to time as we have all experienced.  So, on a day like today, you take the big Sleepy Hollow win and get ready for next weekend.

 

We are less than two weeks away from what promises to be an incredible Breeder’s Cup this year.  As all the connections of the horses make their final preparations, we are already getting our start on the Breeders’ Cup Super Screener screening and analysis. Next weekend will be a little light on stakes action but we’ll use what we can to continue to help pad our Breeders’ Cup bank rolls as we get ready for two of the greatest days in racing.  

 

So, until next weekend…Go Fast and Win!
Mike

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