Screening the Sam Davis Stakes - Super Screener
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Screening the Sam Davis Stakes

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY 2015 PREPS

G3 Sam Davis Stakes

The Kentucky Derby 2015 prep spotlight moves to Tampa Bay Downs this Saturday as twelve 3 year-olds will contest the G3 Sam Davis Stakes, a race that has produced a starter in nearly every Kentucky Derby over the past 10 years. However, this graded race does not offer qualifying Derby points but it does serve as a prep for the Tampa Bay Derby to be run on March 7th. The headliners feature Ocean Knight, who broke his maiden in impressive, gear-down style at Aqueduct going 6 furlongs. Catalina Red is the local favorite and the interesting Ami’s Flatter, exits a race won by Bluegrass Singer and that colt finished a good 3rd in what turned about to be a very strong Holy Bull Stakes run last Saturday.

Half the field will be trying two turns for the first time so an advantage to those with the two-turn experience already behind them. Not a ton of early energy distribution types in here and from a Super Screener standpoint, Royal Son and Ami’s Flatter appear to be your pace leader candidates.

The Super Screener will favor horses with two-turn route experience or at least one-turn mile experience. If a sprinter is to qualify, we’ll need to see 90+ figures across all BRIS pace and speed rating categories. With a softer pace, horses projecting to be within 4 lengths of the pace will be preferred. Horses that come from off the pace have been winning more than their fair share of races as this distance and surface.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#8 G Five 10-1

#9 My Johnny B Good 6-1

#3 Ami’s Flatter 9-2

BOARD HITTERS

#11 Ocean Knight 5-2

#7 Brother Bobo 20-1

#1 Catalina Red 4-1

 

Let’s break down the Sam Davis Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

 

Tampa Bay Downs– G3 Sam Davis Stakes

Field Size = 12

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 0

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 0

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 0

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 91; Second Call = 98

Projected Pace:  First Call = 94; Second Call = 98

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Presser and Off the Pace types dominate

Morning Line Favorite: Ocean Knight (CURRENT HRN RANKING: Not Ranked)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: G Five, My Johnny B Good, Ami’s Flatter

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Brother Bobo

 

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = C-

Notes: As a prep that does not offer Kentucky Derby qualifying points, connections are prepping here to point to races run in early March that offer those qualifying Kentucky Derby points.

Come back to this blog Sunday and we’ll take a look at this prep to see if trips, biases and pace/speed rating outcomes will alter our HRN SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING.

 

POST RACE RECAP – 2/1/15

The pace on this race came up very soft. Catalina Red set that crawling pace but clearly something went wrong with Catalina Red and he was vanned off after the race, Divining Rod took over the pace and continued the crawl posting pace figures that were double digits below par. Ocean Knight ran a decent two-turn route debut and deserves to move forward in his next start. Can’t see any others in here making an impact in future races on the Derby trail. Looking for a report on G Five to get an explanation as to why the jockey stopped riding him.

CHART: https://www.brisnet.com/secure-bin/brisclub/archives_pdf.cgi?type=arc&country=USA&track=TAM&date=2015-01-31&race=11

 

WINNER: Ocean Knight

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                             1st Call =   91; 2nd Call = 98; Final = 101

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:       1st Call = 94; 2nd Call = 98; Final = 100

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:               1st Call = 81; 2nd Call = 83 Final = 95

TRACK BIAS: None

TOUGH TRIP: Catalina Red was vanned off and the jockey stopped racing on G Five

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: None really considering the very slow early pace.

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: C-

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: C-

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