Kentucky Downs, Queen’s Plate Weekend RECAP

KY Downs Ladies Turf (G3)

Up until the 6^th race the turf course at Ky Downs was ultra firm… but then the rains came and the turf course went from good to yielding to soft in a matter of 3 races. Chad Brown’s pair of Regal Glory and our top and second picks in the race, Tapit Today and Mitchell Road, all completed the Trifecta. Princess Causeway, who was the Top Long Shot pick in the race, tossed a real dud as she never looked comfortable and faded to last — she needs that ultra-firm turf. The pace was quite modest which worked to the top finishing pair’s advantage as Mitchell Road led the way with Regal Glory pressing and then just getting past and holding the advantage over Mitchell Road after the wire.

KY Downs Ladies Sprint (G3)

Kimari was scratched from this race and that was really our key horse to work around. With that scratch, it moved Cariba and Got Stormy up to the #1 and #2 spots. Cariba did nothing as the second choice in the race, never picking up her feet. It took the drop in class, shortening up and a sort turf course to get Got Stormy back in the Winner’s Circle as the odds-on favorite. Quebec, our Top Long Shot pick in the race at odds of 66-1, looked like she was going to get up for 4^th but came up 1.5 lengths short.

KY Downs Juvenile Turf Sprint

There was no doubt that one of the Wesley Ward pair would win this race and, just to make sure, his duo finished 1-2 as the favorites in the race. The pace set up was such that a closer could have been very advantaged here which is why the Super Screener was so bullish on Perfect Mistake who went off at those desired odds of 20-1+. After dwelling in the back he made a mild late move but was not a factor here.

Kentucky Turf Cup (G3)

With the scratch of American Tattoo, we advised using Red Knight over and under the Other “A” and “B” horses and that worked out with a $10 Exacta returning $345. Red Knight was loaded for this race despite the long layoff and was the horse Mike Maker feared the most in terms of who could defeat Zulu Alpha. With blinkers coming on Arklow, as advised by Mike Smith, and the turf condition coming up soft, that all worked in this 6 yr-old’s favor as he made it 3 for 3 in the Exacta on this turf course winning at nearly 6-1. He tracked a soft pace which only helped his chances. Zulu Alpha was the only horse to close from the back among the top 5 finishers so take nothing away from his performance. He is certainly still at the top of his game.

KY Downs Turf Sprint (G3)

Have to give credit to the connections of Imprimis. He showed he can get the 6-furlong distance on this turf course that plays longer than that though I suspect his win was more about the soft turf conditions. It was a great effort from this 6 year-old and bodes well for his chances in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint where he’ll cut back in distance. The Super Screener Top Win pick, Front Run the Fed, finished 2^nd just missing the win by a short neck. American Anthem trailed throughout and showed no interest. Note that many horses in here did not take to the soft turf such as Totally Boss, Stubbins and Renaissance Frolic. Move each of those horses up if they come back to sprint on a firm turf course.

Queen’s Plate

The Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, Mighty Heart, got slammed down in the wagering in the final minute but still went off at 13-1 and just dusted this field winning by open lengths. His stablemate, Belichick, closed from the back of the field to produce a gargantuan $730 Exacta payoff for $2. The other top rated Super Screener horses took up the top half of the field slots including the Top Value pick, Tecumseh’s War, who finished 4^th. Ranked 3^rd overall, here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Mighty Heart prior to the race:

#13 – Mighty Heart – TOP LONG SHOT/OFF PACE – Stablemate to #10 Curlin’s Voyage will sit that great outside trip which is the place to be sitting just off the average pace ready to pounce at first asking. Is very lightly raced and has really taken to the Tapeta surface. Look for another big move forward here. Big price.

As the Preakness field begins to take shape with just under 3 weeks to go, we are treated to a couple of Breeders’ Cup “win and you’re in” races including the Woodbine Mile (which has been a strong producer of top finishers in the Breeders’ Cup Mile as of late) and the Speakeasy stakes at Santa Anita as their fall meet gets under way. In addition, Belmont Park returns with the always interesting G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational. Plenty of racing action to keep us in play this weekend. 

Until this weekend, Go Fast and Win!

Mike