Baffert Colts Impress in Rebel – Recap & Highlights
- Updated: March 15, 2021
Photo: Eclipse Sportswire
Rebel Stakes (G2)
And the rich get richer. Lo and behold, Bob Baffert has another colt that will line up on in the gate on the first Saturday in May. Concert Tour won the G2 Rebel going wire-to-wire and enjoying the perfect trip. He cut very moderate early fractions reserving plenty of energy for the stretch drive and just sprinted away from the rest of the field leaving the favored, Caddo River, in the dust. That rival dueled early with Concert Tour and then steadily backed up in a surprisingly poor performance.
The running line Concert Tour submitted here was a good one. More or less, what you would expect from a “B” horse. Being sired by Street Sense, it is no surprise that this colt keeps winning as the distances get longer. He also is knocking out 90+ BRIS Pace/Speed Rating figures over the 2nd half of his races. He’ll need a big move forward in his final prep if he is to be considered a serious Kentucky Derby contender, however.
We really needed the Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, Big Lake, to take 2nd. He was denied that position when he got sawed off mid-stretch from a tiring Caddo River and then he slammed into Get Her Number losing all momentum. I really liked the way this one dug in after that trouble and got back into stride to just miss the 2nd place to Baffert’s “other” colt, Hozier, who ran a decent race considering the slow early pace.
Top Long Shot/Top Value Plays Highlights
As previously mentioned, Big Lake finished a very game 3rd at 18-1 as the Super Screener Top Long Shot pick in the Rebel Stakes. But, the long shot call of the day was the Super Screener Top Long Shot pick in the Temperence Hill Stakes.
It was a marathon race and lone speed is always a danger in those types of races as they are typically run very slow in the early stages even when there are multiple, forwardly-placed types in the race. In screening this race, the Super Screener sniffed out a potential upset from the highly pace advantaged, Carlos L. Here’s what the Super Screener said about this long shot prior to the race:
#5 Carlos L. (15-1) — He’s the most lightly raced horse in the race and we know he can go long based on his races in Panama. He was really tough to handle in that last race off the break. Prior to that, he closed the 2020 season with his best effort to date on the sloppy Hawthorne surface. He will be your pace leader and if he can be rated, watch out, as he’ll have plenty in reserve for the final stretch drive. The price should be huge on this Super Screener Top Long Shot pick.
He opened up on the field early, as anticipated, and cut very easy fractions throughout. He was then engaged by Plainsman and after putting that one away Lone Rock engaged. This took place for a ¼ of a mile but Carlos L. had so much energy left in the tank he was able to fend off those rivals to get the neck win as the longest shot on the board coming home at unbelievable odds of 48-1 as the as Super Screener Top Win and Top Long Shot pick.
The center of the racing universe moves to the Fair Grounds which will host several full-field stakes races this Saturday but the highlight will be the G2 Louisiana Derby, in which Mandaloun and Proxy will be challenged by the CA invader, Hot Rod Charlie as they contest the demanding 1 3/16th distance. This is when the prep season really gets in to high gear as only 5 weekends of Kentucky Derby preps remain. Plenty of exciting racing to come.
Louisiana Derby analysis will be released TUESDAY at 10am ET – be sure your subscription is up to date!
Until this coming weekend…Go Fast and Win!
Mike
