Top Value Rombauer Wins Preakness @ 11-1! - Super Screener
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Top Value Rombauer Wins Preakness @ 11-1!

Scott Serio/Eclipse Sportswire

Rombauer!  The Super Screener Top Value play rumbled home for a decisive Preakness victory at great odds of 11-1. Note that the top 4 finishers in the race came from the Super Screener’s top five ranked horses with Rombauer as the Top Value Play and Keepmeinmind the Top Long Shot pick.

Rombauer sat the perfect trip off what was a pretty hot pace considering you don’t see too many sub :47 and 1:11 pace set ups in this race, historically.  His trip was uninterrupted and Flavien Prat was sitting on a ton of horse. If you caught the post parade, Rombauer was glowing and on his toes looking like the beast he is so that telegraphed the performance that was about to unfold.

Here’s Rombauer’s running line from his Preakness victory. That pairing of BRIS Late Pace and Speed Rating figures of 103 was quite stellar. Note that he moved forward in a big way in this race as the Super Screener form cycle analysis had predicted. He also met the profile of longer priced horses that hit the board most often in this race as we had illustrated in the Super Screener article analyzing the past 20 editions of this race.

While he wasn’t a 20-1 shot, Rombauer was the Top Value play and he exited one of the most productive races in the Blue Grass Stakes when it comes to long shots hitting the board in the Preakness and especially closers as the chart above illustrates. Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Rombauer prior to the race:

This will be just his 3rd start since November and form cycle analysis projects a strong move forward for this New Shooter repeating the same progression pattern accomplished in his 2 yr-old season. He’s a closer but he won’t be as far back as other closers in the field. He is not a quick turn-of-foot type but rather a grinder who will just keep coming laying out energy in more balanced way then typical closers. Works have been solid leading up to this and along with Keepmeinmind we have pegged this colt as a Top Long Shot pick.

Midnight Bourbon ran his race and finished 2nd, again, where the Super Screener had him ranked but give him extra credit for pressing the swift pace and sticking around for the bottom of the Exacta.

Medina Spirit went to the front where he is most comfortable and knocked out very fast fractions in the process and just didn’t have enough reserve energy to get the job done coming off that perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby but this tough little guy held onto 3rd.

The Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, Keepmeinmind closed for 4th to complete one of our suggested Superfecta tickets that paid over $1,000. Like he did in the Kentucky Derby he walked out of the gate and spotted his rivals a couple of lengths at the outset but he began to gather momentum and finished an undisputed 4th fulfilling another Preakness trend of long shot closers hitting the bottom of the Superfecta. Here’s what the Super Screener said about Keepmeinmind prior to the race:

No horse suffered a tougher trip in the Kentucky Derby and yet he was able to come from last to 7th in a race shape that was not conducive to that kind of move. The trouble commenced right at the start when this colt walked out of the gate which had him then dead last through the first call, some 19 lengths off the pace. About mid race, however, he started picking off horses while traveling widest of all in a solid mid-race move. He continued on with energy as he fanned 8 wide coming into the stretch to finish a very game 7th on even terms with Midnight Bourbon. This was a far better effort than his prior two races on a racetrack surface that he clearly prefers. Blinkers came off in the Derby and that may have helped his clear progression in the race. There is no telling how many lengths he lost in his Kentucky Derby effort but with a better trip, you could certainly make the case that he would have finished in 5th. If the pace pressure ends up being on the intense side, this is your top long shot that could close and pass them all at a huge price. Even if the pace comes up moderate, he is still a strong board hitter candidate. Resumes his progression to match his previous top in the BC Juvenile. 

Now we move onto our favorite jewel in the Triple Crown.  The Belmont Stakes will be run in less than 3 weeks on Saturday, June 5th. Look for Kentucky Derby runners that have been rested now to return in the Belmont Stakes with Todd Pletcher’s crew leading the brigade. Those Kentucky Derby runners that skipped the Preakness are very dangerous in the Belmont Stakes but new shooters that were later developers have scored as well. It will be interesting to see how this field takes shape over the next week or so and we’ll begin our analysis of this exciting race next week. 

Thank you and let’s get ready to close big on the Belmont Stakes!

Mike