Top Long Shot Scores in Belmont Stakes! - Super Screener
Super Screener

Top Long Shot Scores in Belmont Stakes!

Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire

The Belmont Stakes worked out pretty much according to how the Super Screener analysis predicted.

The Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, Sir Winston, ranked 3rd overall, won via a ground-saving trip and an aggressive ride by Joel Rosario. It was the Super Screener’s Top Win pick Tacitus’s race to lose… and he did… all on his own, via a 5-wide trip throughout on a day in which the rail was the place to be. That would equate to far more than a one length difference in the end.

Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Sir Winston prior to the race:

This colt’s most successful strategy is to take well back off a faster-than-par pace and then come with one big run as he did last out in the G3 Peter Pan Stakes on his way to a lifetime top. Historically, the Peter Pan Stakes has been a useful and productive prep race for Belmont Stakes new shooters and especially for bottom-of-Exotics finishers at a big price. He spun his wheels in that quirky Blue Grass Stakes race, getting too involved early as jockeys were aware of the perceived speed bias on that day. Really got the perfect trip last out, running last of all in the compact field of 5, sitting off what was a hot pace early on and then just ran down tired horses to finish a fast-closing 2nd. While he may not get the same pace set up here, though there will be adequate pressure, he is one of the few horses in the race that will relish the extra distance. While Master Fencer will be last of all, this deep-closing colt will be 2nd to last and about 8 to 10 lengths off the pace leader in the early stages of the race. That BRIS Late Pace figure of 114 submitted in the Peter Pan Stakes was super strong and he’ll need something similar to impact the Exotics here. Cover some for the win spot but use more “underneath” in your Exotic wagers.

Continuing with his undeniably cold run here, Pletcher’s pair did nothing with Intrepid Heart being the biggest disappointment. However, Spinoff did finish just a ½ length out of 4th so not disastrous at all.

We correctly anticipated that War of Will would not replicate his winning performance in the Preakness, as it is really tough to follow up Derby and Preakness runs with a top performance in the Belmont (unless you are a freak like Justify). Also, though both were hyped via their performances in the Derby and Preakness, respectively, Master Fencer and Everfast were correctly faded by the Super Screener.

Lastly, we warned about leaving Joevia, the longest shot on the board, off your tickets, given the likely favorable pace set up in this race… even including him in first and second on some suggested tickets.

In the end, the Super Screener suggested Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta and Pick 4 wagers returned nearly $18,000 with most of that coming from a Superfecta ticket with Sir Winton singled on top over Tacitus and Intrepid Heart in 2nd and three P4 tickets cashing for over $2,000 each.

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