Ohio Derby EXACT Order of Finish – RECAP! – Super Screener
Super Screener

Ohio Derby EXACT Order of Finish – RECAP!

Photo courtesy JACK Thistledown

Ohio Derby (G3)

It happens from time to time, but the Super Screener’s ranking of this field turned out to be the exact order in which the horses finished in this race from top to bottom. Most importantly, the primary $50 Exacta play of Owendale over the Super Screener top value play, Math Wizard, scored and hit for $280 which isn’t too bad considering how chalky this race came up. Here’s what we said about the top 3 finishers before the race:

“There is no question that the pace of this race will be swift and pressured with “cheap speed” galore as 3 overmatched pace types battle it out up front. The race couldn’t set up any better for the lone deep closer, #2 Owendale. There is no doubt he’ll hit the Trifecta with a 2nd place finish the most likely outcome. It is clear that 1 1/8 miles is about as far as he wants to go. In addition to the hot pace, working in his favor is the fact that he is still relatively fresh. Certainly showed high energy in the AM in that last work. The Super Screener believed it was more than the sloppy surface that led to the Arkansas Derby drubbing for #3 Long Range Toddy as that was his 8th race without a break, and while he was in contention in the Derby before being abruptly halted during the infamous fracas that ensued in that race, it is unlikely he would have been a factor down the lane. Certainly a fast track would be preferred and the break has had to do him some good though it was probably not long enough. #1 Math Wizard is intriguing here but we would need better than 8-1 to get interested. He really started getting it after his 4th race and his last 5 efforts have been quite sound, including a 4th place finishes behind both Tacitus and Laughing Fox. Will sit a perfect mid-pack trip saving all the ground and gets the first run on late closer, #2 Owendale. Blinkers come off which is a positive. Sneaky one to be used as vertical single to help pump up what will otherwise be anemic payouts.”

We faded Long Range Toddy has he has been over raced and the Super Screener never considered him a serious Triple Crown race threat. He is more of a “B” player and he will struggle even more as the months progress and the pace set ups get more demanding. He could really benefit from an extended break but that is not how the Asmussen barn rolls. Would be better off finding much easier G3 company.

Wilshire (G3)

This was the race the we were looking forward to as the Super Screener was very convicted when it came to the top choice, Ollie’s Candy, completing the Exacta. However, we needed one of the two Top Long Shot picks, Poster Girl (32-1) or Achira (21-1), to cooperate and hit the bottom of the Superfecta. They finished 6th and 7th, respectively, instead. All was not lost as the top three finishers in the race ended up being the Super Screener’s top 3 ranked horses which kicked off a modest Trifecta payoff.

Lady’s Secret

The Super Screener top two picks, Breaking Bread and Sun Studio finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively.  Breaking Bread was the Super Screener Top Long Shot pick and Sun Studio was the top value play.

The Super Screener also accurately identified Acrobello as a vulnerable favorite. She ended up going off at odds of 4-5 and we ranked her 2nd to last in this field which is precisely where she finished.

United Nations (G1)

Nope…never would have had Hunter O’Riley pegged as the winner here, let alone a board hitter. He had everything working against him, including a slow pace set up that would not aid this late closer’s stretch run…but he beat some decent ones and it tells you how wide open the turf males handicap division is this year. After Catholic Boy and Bricks and Mortar, it is really tough to come up with a third top horse.

What was Jose Lezcano trying to do when rushing Monarchs Glen into contention pressing Arrocha throughout?  Watch out for this horse next out (especially on a distance cut back) as he returns to his preferred closing style. Note that the first three horses contesting the pace ended up in the back of the field as they hit the wire. The good turf surface clearly must have been tiring on this day.

While we await the opening of the highly anticipated Del Mar and Saratoga meets, we turn our attention northward as Woodbine puts on one of their biggest days of the year featuring the $1,000,000 Queen’s Plate, which is surrounded by other Graded Stakes (hopefully with some full fields). In addition, there are stakes races scattered across several other major circuits which we’ll consider as we put together this weekend’s Super Screener book.

Until this weekend, Go Fast and Win!