Screener Nails 5-1 Tapwrit On Top in 2017 Belmont Stakes - Super Screener
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Screener Nails 5-1 Tapwrit On Top in 2017 Belmont Stakes

Photo by Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire/

In the 10 days leading up to this year’s Belmont Stakes, we saw the defections of Conquest Mo Money, True Timber, Belmont favorite, Classic Empire, and on the day of the race, Epicharis, the Japanese import, was scratched.  All of these horses were pace and presser types, so with every defection, the pace set up just got better and better for those that would remain as horses that would run on or near the pace.

 

With Classic Empire defecting from the race, that left Tapwrit as our lone A horse with a commanding score of 92% (next closest score was 81%).  He projected to sit the perfect trip on the rail behind the pace setter and other pressers which is exactly what transpired.  He had been training really well up to this race and he certainly was bred to get the distance.  In the end it was our top win pick, Tapwrit prevailing over our number one “B” horse, Irish War Cry, for the Belmont Stakes win.  

 

With the scratch of Epicharis on Saturday morning, we moved Patch and Gormley up in the rankings as the more favorable pace set would work to their advantage and that turned out to be a good move, as that pair finished 3rd and 4th, respectively.  

 

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Every year over the past 25 years, you could count on at least one closer and usually more to hit the Superfecta. Not this year.  The top 4 finishers were all within 2 lengths of one another at the halfway point in the race.  With the very slow pace splits of 48 3/5, 1:14 and 1:38 4/5, closers had no chance and Senior Investment was best of that bunch, finishing in 5th place.

 

The Super Screener faded Lookin At Lee as he violated some key Super Screener criteria, indicating that he would be over the top for this race.

 

Not sure what happened to our top long shot pick, Multiplier, who ended up last (with Hollywood Handsome pulled up) but the jock stopped riding him, so we’ll see if we can get a report on him. In the meantime, Meantime had the right pace set up but after a mile he backed away.  He was just facing too much better in the end and that Peter Pan Stakes race in the slop will be downgraded.

 

 

Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about the lone “A” horse and top Screener scorer, Tapwrit:

 

(Tapwrit) The decision was made to use his Kentucky Derby and Tampa Bay Derby races in deriving his Super Screener score as the Blue Grass was not representative of his true abilities.  In the Derby, he finished just over 2 lengths behind Classic Empire with both having a ton of trouble.  And, he finished on pretty much even terms with Practical Joke in the Derby (latter having a relatively trouble-free trip) and that one beat Tapwrit by 10 lengths in the Blue Grass.  

He has that perfect “troubled-Derby, skipped the Preakness” profile shared by recent Belmont winners such as Creator, Palace Malice and Union Rags. He lays out energy in a very balanced way which is perfect for this 1 1/2 miles distance which breeding and the way he moves suggests he’ll get.  Is definitely outworking Patch in the AM and looking stronger for Pletcher.

With the defection of Classic Empire he now becomes the Super Screener top win pick.”

 

As the top “B” horse, Irish War Cry did not disappoint finishing a well clear and game 2nd place.  Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about this promising colt:

 

Irish War Cry has defeated both recent Preakness winner Cloud Computing and Classic Empire in previous races.  He created all the trouble in the Derby with that brutal left turn out of the gate causing a chain reaction that affected horses in the 12 to 16 posts.  He actually had a decent trip in the Derby chasing Always Dreaming on the worst part of the track and then folded but did hold on to 10th place… so not a disaster by any means.  “Derby Runner/Skip the Preakness” player which is a Screener positive.  Also, if he behaves, should sit a perfect trip adjacent to Gormley and behind pace setter, Meantime.  Other than that 20-point spread in BRIS Speed Rating figures between his last two races, he meets most other Screener criteria for this race.  Has been considered part of the best of this year’s 3 year-old crop and deserves a shot at redemption here under better conditions.”

 

Thanks to the Super Screener isolating Tapwrit as the lone top win contender and Irish War Cry as the top B horse, the suggested wagers that hit included the $1 Exacta hitting 23 times and the Trifecta clicking a couple of times.

 

With the Triple Crown races now in the books, the G1 and G2 stars from the top barns will start thinking about the upcoming Saratoga and Del Mar marquee meets.  However, until then, there is plenty of Graded Stakes action to leverage along the way.  For example, this coming Saturday, Churchill Downs will feature 5 Graded Stakes on the card highlighted by the G1 Stephen Foster Handicap in which we will see the return of one of the top stars in the handicap division (and a Super Screener favorite) Gun Runner…so don’t miss out on all the upcoming action.

 

Until next weekend…Go fast and win!

 

Mike

 

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