Ice Cold Ohio Derby Exacta – Get The Recap!

Ohio Derby (G3)

There was a lot of debate regarding this race with most pundits landing on Lone Sailor and Flameaway as the most likely winners. The Super Screener, however was very convicted on Core Beliefs as the winner, Lone Sailor as the most reliable board hitter and Flameaway likely to struggle with the pace and added ground. Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about these horses:

“#10 Core Beliefs popped a big lifetime best running third behind Justify and Bolt d’Oro in the G1 Santa Anita Derby and finished ahead of the 4th place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, Instilled Regard.  He followed that top effort with a better-than-it looked 2nd place finish in the G3 Peter Pan Stakes. The race did not start well for him as he did not get the best of starts and he immediately engaged in a duel that included three other rivals and that foursome cut some brutal fractions through the first 6 furlongs of the race.  He then successfully drew away with authority from those early duelers and fought on gamely to hold off the pace-advantaged late run by Blended Citizen. He will secure a better trip here despite the outside draw as he will press a pair of overmatched stretch-out sprinters (#6 Trigger Warning and #12 Last Drop of Wine) who will be dueling on the front end before falling back early.  This quality colt should have plenty left in the tank for the stretch drive and will get first jump on any closers.  Gets this distance and can handle off going. Offers some value at morning line odds of 5-1.

 

The only concern with #3 Lone Sailor is the length of his 2018 campaign and the fact that he ran two weeks apart in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.  Otherwise, he really figures here as distance will be no problem, he gets the perfect pressured pace set up and an off track only helps his chances.  He’ll sit back about 4 lengths off the lead for most of the race before commencing a menacing run down the stretch as he tries to run down #2 Flameaway and #10 Core Beliefs.  Of the Triple Crown runners, this has been a high rated horse and a top long shot pick in the Kentucky Derby by the Super Screener.

 

#2 Flameway certainly figures here on grit and determination alone. Despite running some good looking Derby preps, the Super Screener rated Flameaway very low going into the Kentucky Derby as both the pace and distance did not figure to work in his favor and he ended up far, far back in 13th.  He would prefer even shorter than 1 1/8 miles as that might be just beyond his distance comfort zone. However, no horse in here has a bigger heart and he can prevail on determination alone.”

 

In the end, the Screener picked the Exacta cold and this was the third race in a row in which the top win pick won the race.

 

Chicago Handicap (G3)

The Super Screener Top Win and Top Value pick HotShot Anna made it look easy in a dominating win on the Polytrack. Our extra homework on her going back to her debut race on the Arlington Park track paid off, confirming the switch back to synthetics would be a positive factor. Also, it was clear that there was a strong speed bias on Saturday at Arlington which only helped her cause.  Here’s what the Super Screener said about Hotshot Anna prior to the race:

 

“Sitting in a great spot just a couple of lengths off the pace leader will be the Super Screener Top Win and Top Value pick, #7 Hotshot Anna who is in top form right now with three consecutive strong efforts on dirt.  She actually debuted on the Polytrack at Arlington Park and that race was much better than that BRIS Speed Rating of 74 would indicate.  Adding further evidence that she’ll transfer that good dirt form over to the synthetic surface is the fact that she has a couple of good races on the turf.  Her trainer, Hugh Robertson, has been on a roll this year and he is also the owner of this filly. Her most valuable asset is that balanced energy distribution profile which in a race with such a modest pace means she’ll just keep coming on in that final furlong.  Strong win contender and she offers value at odds of 5-1 or higher.”

 

Of the nine 15-1+ long shots in the race, our Top Long Shot pick, Kyllachy Queen finished best of the nine closing from dead last to 5th running against the speed bias at odds of 63-1!  Definitely a horse to tab for her next out.

Super Screener Trifecta and Superfecta wagers hit, but was really pulling for Kyllachy Queen to get up for at least 4th to help those payouts.

 

Mystic Lake Derby

So much for the Super Screener Top Long Shot pick going off at big odds.  The Mike Maker-trained Sniper Kitten caught some steam and was bet down to 7-2 becoming the 2nd choice in the race. Mr. Jagermeister was trying turf and a route for the first time and the Super Screener appropriately faded him and ranked him 8th.  

Nobrag Justfact shocked all in finishing 2nd at odds of 42-1. We could have screened this race 100 times over and on any measure this horse would not rank in the top 4. He was in good form having just won two races, but they were slow compared to most in here and there were no compromising pace/trip issues. That was a punch in the gut as we had the rest of the horses that finished 3rd through 6th.

 

Turn For Home Stakes

As predicted the Super Screener Top Win pick, Aztec Sense, was an easy winner drawing away at will.  The big surprise here was Moon Gate Warrior finishing 2nd.  He just didn’t screen well here against the projected solid pace setup but it in the end they walked on the front end and this gave the leading pair the opportunity to draw away from the rest of the field.  Predicting the pace and the degree of pressure is critical but it doesn’t always materialize as anticipated as was the case here. Chris and Dave clearly needs a break as it appears he has some type of soft tissue issue given the way he just kept drifting out like that.

 

This Saturday looms large with a plethora of stakes action to choose from. Belmont Park will feature the G2 Mother Goose while one of the first Graded Stakes races for 2 year-olds, the G3 Bashford Manor, will be run at Churchill Downs featuring an overflow field of 13 starters… future Derby starters in the mix?  Gulfstream Park features a stakes loaded card with the G2 Princess Rooney highlighting the afternoon action. The marquee race of the day, however, takes us to Toronto for the $1,000,000 Queen’s Plate at Woodbine featuring another big and contentious field. We’ll have it all doped out for you and it will be another exciting day at the races.

 

Until this weekend, Go Fast and Win!

 

Mike