Kentucky Derby 2013 - A Favorite to Beat - Super Screener
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Kentucky Derby 2013 – A Favorite to Beat

Does This Sound Like The Favorite?

One of the biggest favorites in this year’s Derby does have quite a few chinks in the armor.

  1. Goes against a major Derby stat that is 1 for 138
  2. Has never raced in traffic – now heading into the most “congested” race in America
  3. His trainer is 1 for 31 in the Derby
  4. Was outrun by the 3-year-old fillies by nearly 3 seconds in his Derby prep
  5. Breaks at least 2 major rules of the Super Screener
  6. Everything has gone his way in each of his starts
  7. And you get low odds in a wide-open race if you make him your choice

 

Well, Spill the Beans… Who Is it?

 

That’s right, we are talking about the undefeated Derby favorite, Verrazano.

Verrazano was 4-for-4 after his visually impressive, in-hand Wood Memorial victory in early April.  Clearly, this colt needs to be considered a serious contender.  But he did find the pace and competition conditions experienced in each of his four lifetime starts quite to his liking.

 

 

So Why Not Verrazano?

First, let’s take a look at the Wood Memorial and how it was run for clues as to how much Verrazano was truly tested.

 

 

 

The third line in the chart above shows the splits for the Wood Memorial.  I then compared these splits to other route races run on the card at Aqueduct.  I want to draw your attention to the G2 Gazelle Stakes for fillies and let’s compare the splits produced in that contest and compare them to the splits cut in the Wood Memorial.  What I found particularly striking was the difference in the 6-furlong fractions yielded in these two stakes races.  Note that the Wood Memorial 6-furlong split was run nearly 3 seconds slower than what was posted by the fillies in the Gazelle stakes.  Wow!…now that is remarkable.

So, it’s quite debatable that this young horse was truly tested in the Wood Memorial.

In addition, he breaks two major rules of the Super Screener, putting his win status in doubt.  The Super Screener rates Verrazano as an outside win contender, with a 5th/6th place finish more likely.

 

Who Then Is the Winner?

The Super Screener rates five others higher than Verrazano and you might be surprised just who!  Get the Super Screener to find out who is rated higher!

 

Let Super Screener Be Your Guide!

In what will be one of the more contentious Kentucky Derby fields in recent memory, eliminate the noise, hype and all the distractions and focus on “how” these horses have run their preps and how that compares to 20 years of historical performance thresholds.  Download the Super Screener NOW to learn more about how you can get an insiders view of what it take so win and finish on the board in the Kentucky Derby.

  You Don’t Want to Miss The Winner This Year!

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