Memorial Day Weekend RECAP

We Never Make Excuses

There were a few things to cheer about this weekend with the Super Screener, but let’s face, it my wagering account balance was lower at the end of the day Monday.  However, we never make excuses for poor days nor do we get too high over the good days… but we do learn. 

This is a marathon route race versus a sprint. Like other investment strategies, you just need more good than bad days to make the pursuit worthwhile. Here’s the recap of the Memorial Day Weekend action.

Churchill Downs R6

What Went Right?

• The Super Screener Top Win and Top Value pick won at odds of 9-2 

The pace projects to be very close to par but with a lot of pressure on the pace setters. #2 High Crime will lead the way and if he’s not too fresh off the 9-month layoff he may prove very difficult to put away. Of the pressers, #10 Smart Time emerges here as the tepid Super Screener Top Win pick. He has been away for nearly a year but is the only horse in the field showing solid recent works in preparation for his 2020 debut. He crushed foes in his first career start and then stepped way up next out against tougher while stretching out from a sprint to a route race and nearly won it. Unlike others in here, he hasn’t faced the same conditions repeatedly without success. Barn is very solid with the shipper/layoff types which is another plus. Value!

• Breaking News, as the Top Long Shot pick, closed into the pressured pace to complete the Trifecta at solid odds of 15-1. 

It is certainly not obvious that #5 Breaking News would qualify as a Top Long Shot pick especially off what appears to be a dull effort last out. That 7th place finish will only serve to ensure favorable odds on this lightly raced 4 yr-old colt who shows only 1 win in 11 starts but has missed the Superfecta just twice. The pressured pace set up really works to his favor here as he distributes his energy late. That last race wasn’t as poor as it looks as it was his first start in 5 months. He ran evenly and finished within 5 lengths of the winner. Be assured he will now move forward off that effort 2nd off the long layoff aided by very favorable pace conditions. Will face easier here and do note that his his best career race came on the Churchill Downs surface. Odds of 12-1 or higher are more than fair given his chances.

• A suggested Trifecta ticket returned $160.

What Went Wrong?

• Our Top Board Hitter pick, Hidden Ruler, had to at least finish 3^rd as we used that one as a reliable board hitter to use as a vertical single in our alternative wager suggestions. Close…but no cigar…as he finished a head shy of 3^rd place.

Tepin Stakes

What Went Right?

• The Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, Pass the Plate closed furiously for 3^rd place at odds of 23-1. Had he passed one more horse, we were looking at a big payoff.

#10 Pass the Plate will be situated far back in the early going but will be one of the fastest runners late with the only question being will she pass enough rivals to hit the board at a big price. What helps her chances is the fact that she projects to take another step forward in her form cycle under the guidance of Julien Leparoux who was on this filly in her two wins with one of those victories coming on this turf course. Is a much better horse than when she finished 3rd behind #14 Alms and #4 Dominga two races back. Sharp works leading up to this only serve to add more conviction.

• Outburst was listed at M/L odds of 5-1 but the Super Screener sniffed out a vulnerable low- priced horse and she ended up finishing 11^th. 

What Went Wrong?

• Both Sharing and Abscond were “B” horses in this deep field but we’ll rarely play the “B” over “B” horse combination when there are so many “B” horses in the field. It is a lower percentage play but it hit this time.
  
• Alms and Dominga came out of the same race as Pass the Plate but finished mid-pack as our Top “A” horses.  Dominga had some excuses but Alms did not other than the far outside draw. 

• Used Eve of War too much considering she was a regression risk and drew to the far outside. 

• The Super Screener Top Win pick, Hendy Woods, was scratched and was a very high conviction “A” horse we were looking forward to using.

Blame Stakes

What Went Right? 

• Owendale, one of only two Super Screener “B” horses in the race…won. 

What Went Wrong?

• Top Long Shot pick, Bourbon Resolution, and 2^nd overall pick was scratched. As the race turned out, closers like this one did quite well.  

• The other Top Long Shot pick, Alwaysmining was taken out at the start and lost all chance.

• The Super Screener lone “A” horse, Global Campaign, broke dead last in the field of 12 and then went 6 wide turning for home. This horse was the highest conviction play on the day and a key to the Pick 4 wagers so the biggest disappointment on the weekend.
  
• Did not give enough love to Everfast but we did include in 2^nd in our wagers…but needed Global Campaign on the win side to cash.

Matt Winn (G3)

What Went Right?

• The top three ranked Super Screener horses were the three Trifecta finishers. However, they ended up being the 3 favorites with our top win pick, Ny Traffic getting bet down as the post time approached.

War Chant Stakes

What Went Right?

• The Super Screener Top Board Hitter pick and a vertical single, Field Pass, finished 3^rd.

What Went Wrong?

• Our three Top Long Shot picks all finished within a length of one another in a mid-pack cluster which did not help us as we used that trio to narrow our tickets down in a wide open affair.

Monrovia (G2)

What Went Right?

• The Super Screener Top Win and Top Board Hitter pick, Jolie Olimpica, won the race.

What Went Wrong?

• Should have passed on any wager suggestions given how chalky this was coming up.

Shoemaker Mile (G1)

What Went Right?

• The Super Screener Top Win and Top Board Hitter pick, Raging Bull won this race, handily.
  
• Third choice by the Super Screener, Without Parole, finished 3^rd.
  
• The Super Screener projected War of Will to finish mid-pack and that’s where he ended up… while also being disqualified. 

What Went Wrong?

• Not one of the 3 Top Long Shot picks managed to hit the Superfecta. And, we even singled Raging Bull in first using “ALL” in second requiring just one of those 3 long shots to finish 3^rd…it was not to be.

Gamely (G1)

What Went Right?

• A “B” horse in Keeper Of theStars won the race.
  
• The Super Screener Top Long Shot pick Bodhicitta finished big for a 2^nd place finish at odds of 14-1.

What Went Wrong?

• The Super Screener suggested wagers had both Keeper OftheStars and Bodhicitta in first and second in separate tickets…but not together…that was just beyond frustrating. Hopefully, some of you put those horses together on a ticket using them in 1^st and 2^nd and enjoyed the score.

Onward and upward…as it is back to Churchill Downs and Santa Anita for more stakes action this weekend, plus some of those loaded, full-field, high purse Allowance races. Don’t miss out on what could be some great racing.

Until this coming weekend, Go Fast and Win!

Mike

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