Post-Breeders’ Cup Stakes Success – Recap!

Commonwealth (G3)

This was the featured race on Saturday that was thin on graded stakes affairs following the Breeders’ Cup. However, the Super Screener’s Top Pick with heavy conviction, Hot Springs, came through, flashing a brilliant turn of foot and overcoming the accurately projected slow pace.

“This is #7 Hot Springs’ race to lose. There is no reason that given the ideal pace set up, form cycle ascension after the layoff and affinity for this turf course that this colt will not win this race. Even the slight cut back in distance should work in his favor and he has a stablemate in #1 Reride that will help ensure a fair pace attempting to prevent #2 Marzo from getting “loose” on the lead.”

 

The Super Screener Top Value/Long Shot play in this race was Zero Gravity, and he too showed a strong turn of foot to come from last to 2nd as the 2nd-longest shot on the board, completing a good Exacta.  

“In this compact field, there are no long shot players to consider but #6 Zero Gravity offers some value as the gelding is finally coming into his own after dwelling in the basement of maiden competition.  Once he broke that maiden back in June, he rose to the occasion of tougher competition though it was in races that were taken off the turf. We are trusting the barn here, to an extent, and would much prefer to see a much hotter pace to get more excited about the potential better payoff.  Best not to try and beat the top two but a 2nd place finish by this gelding will at least boost the return.”

 

The Super Screener suggested Exacta wager returned $417.

 

Richard W. Small Stakes

This race was ravaged by 6 scratches — changing the complexion of the race — making the Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, Dalmore, the top pick in the race. He, indeed, seized an open-lengths lead in the early going, but was passed by Unbridled Juan, who was the benefactor of the perfect trip. Dalmore, however, dug in tenaciously refusing to relinquish 2nd place.

“#9 Dalmore has been racing way out of his league in his last two races against Breeders’ Cup starters and had no chance. Three races prior were top flight and it was still against tougher than what he faces here.  Tracks a fair pace and an easier one than he tried to negotiate in his last 4 races. Surprises at a big price.”

 

The Super Screener’s Top Value play, Doctor Mounty, rounded out the Trifecta which cashed for $226.  

“#8 Doctor Mounty, out of the Shug McGaughey barn, is offering value relative to the generous morning line odds of 15-1.  Note that he can run effectively on either dirt or turf…in fact, he has a win on each surface at Laurel. He finished 8th in this race last year against a tougher crowd. He popped a big race last out on yielding turf winning at 26-1.  Sits off the pace but close enough to stay in contention throughout then continues on for an on-the- board finish at a price. Shorter distance would be even better.”

 

La Prevoyante

The Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, She’s the Berries, got bet down late in the wagering and ended up going off as one of the favorites. She did not disappoint, sitting off the pace and then running on with energy to draw away as the easy winner.

The disappointment in this race was the Super Screener top pick in Zestina, who looked to be the winner entering the stretch but could not hold on for 2nd after pressing the pace (though she did best of any horse that was close to that early pace).

 

Del Mar Race #8

This was the strongest race on the Del Mar card and it set up perfectly for the top two finishers, which were the top two ranked Super Screener horses. Getting Engram into the bottom of the Trifecta was perhaps too ambitious as he was never a factor at 59-1.

 

It’s another light stakes weekend coming up but Aqueduct, Churchill Downs and Del Mar have a some interesting races to consider.   

Until next weekend, Go Fast and Win!

Mike