Preakness 2015 - How to Find the WIN ZONE! - Super Screener
Super Screener

Preakness 2015 – How to Find the WIN ZONE!

What is this Year’s Preakness Win Zone?

As part of our Preakness Super Screener, we thought it would be interesting to map out
where each of the past 10 Preakness winners were positioned in the race once the
winner approached the far turn (which is about 6 furlongs into the race).  Unlike the
typically much larger Kentucky Derby fields of up to 20 horses which creates three Win
Zones, what emerged from the Preakness analysis are just two distinct Win Zone
groupings as shown in the graphic below:

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Some key insights to be gleaned from this graphic include the following:

SPEED ZONE – Win Zone 1 comprised have of the past 10 Preakness winners and
these horses were within 1 length of the lead as they headed into the final turn.

Note that most of the winners were taken to the outside to the 2 to 5 path to ensure a
trouble-free run for the remainder of the race.

OFF THE PACE ZONE – Win Zone 2 comprises Preakness Stakes winners that were in
touch with the field sitting just 4 to 6 lengths off the leaders as they approached the final
turn.  50% of Preakness Stakes winners emanated from this Off The Pace Win
Zone.  Again, these horses were positioned anywhere from 2 to 4 wide heading into the turn.

PACE MAKES THE ZONE – To help explain the “why” of the two separate Win Zones,
we turned to pace analysis for some clues.  When you average the 6-furlong running
time for races (excluding any outliers) won by horses in each of the two Win Zones, you
see an expected pattern emerge.  On average, “up close” winners in Win Zone 1
encountered a modest average 6 furlong time of 1:11 1/5 which was identical to this
same Win Zone for Kentucky Derby winners.  Win Zone 2 winners sitting more mid pack
took advantage of a swifter average 6 furlong time of 1:10 3/5 (also the same as the
Kentucky Derby winners from this  Win Zone type).

From What Zone will this Year’s Preakness Stakes Winner Come?

– Taking an early look at the probable field, the Super Screener is estimating a 6
furlong pace time of about 1:11. This would mean the winner of the Preakness
Stakes should come from the Win Zone 1 or just a length behind that zone.

– There could be as many as 4 or 5 horses that settle into or near Win Zone 1 so
we’ll need rely on the Super Screener for further screening to come up with the
likely winner from that zone.

The Preakness Super Screener will evaluate the final field, derive a revised projected
pace time and evaluate the impact of pace on each horse’s natural energy distribution
profile. Order the Preakness Super Screener now to get into the Win Zone!


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