RECAP: Red Smith, Native Diver, Kennedy Road + Holiday Racing – Super Screener
Super Screener

RECAP: Red Smith, Native Diver, Kennedy Road + Holiday Racing

Photo By Eclipse Sportswire

Red Smith (G3)

The Super Screener “A” horse and Top Board Hitter pick, Sadler’s Joy, was just too good for this field but, in offering no value,…no fun. We knew beyond Sadler’s Joy and Nakamura, who finished a disappointing 5th , that the rest of the outcome was going to be quite random and “if spreading” C horses made up the rest of the Trifecta.  As we anticipated, there was plenty of pace pressure for a marathon type race which aided the deep-closing Sadler’s Joy cause.

Kennedy Road (G2)

There is just no beating the local Tapeta surface specialist, Pink Lloyd. He bided his time and then circled the field going very wide getting a very unexpected swift and pressured pace to close into and then went on with sustained energy opening up to the wire. Our second place pick, Extravagant Kid. ran well to finish 2nd for the third time on this surface in 3 starts.

Sometimes in races in which on paper it appears that the pace will be soft, jockeys will see it, too and try to take advantage of it.  Problem is…if more than one jock figures that out, then you have the opposite effect as is what happened in this race. Richiesinthehouse was the clear pace leader that projected to secure an easy lead on a softer pace.  Extravagant Kid and O’Kratos figured to press that relatively easy pace…that was it. However, Eskiminzin, an off-the-pace type, was used early as was Reconfigure…in the end…we had 5 horses all battling on the front end within less than 2 lengths of one another cutting brisk fractions of 22 3/5 and 45 1/5. Note, that the three horses on the front end in the early going all finished as the last 3 horses at the back of the pack once they crossed the wire.  Give extra credit to Extravagant Kid who was the only top finisher that was close to the early fire.

#2 Extravagant Kid – PRESSER – Was under consideration for the Breeder’s Cup Turf Sprint but was not 100%. Was stymied mid-stretch losing valuable ground while running in the G2 Woodford tracking a hot pace on a very firm turf course. Is proficient on any surface and is 8 for 9 in the Trifecta going 6 panels. Faces easier here and possesses superior pace figures. A strong board-hitter contender.

Coronation Futurity

#8 Malibu Mambo emerges as a top value play here seeking to turn the tables on
#7 Muskoka Gold who beat him by over 7 lengths in the Cup Saucer Stakes.

The Super Screener Top Win pick, Malibu Mambo, indeed, turned the tables on the odds-on favorite, Muskoka Gold, our Top Board hitter pick and he did so coming from last to 2nd just missing the win at the wire to our 4th ranked “B” horse, Halo Again. 

The Super Screener faded the other favorite in the race, Pleasecallmeback, as a vulnerable play against and he finished at the back of the pack as predicted. He’ll be better on turf that comes up soft. 

This outcome was good enough to hit the Trifecta for $155 on one of the suggested tickets.

Native Diver (G3)

Wow… another SoCal graded stakes race reduced to a four-horse field. The Super Screener Top “A” horse and top value play, #2 Midcourt inherited the lead and then took the field through modest fractions while drawing away at will in an impressive effort. The Super Screener anticipated that this lightly raced 4-year-old would move forward in a big way again here, and he proved to be the right value play in this race.

#2 Midcourt is a massive, very lightly raced 4 year-old who missed the entire 2018 season but since coming back in 2019 he has just gotten better with every start. This one is begging for more ground and gets it here. Form cycle analysis projects a substantial move forward as this late bloomer comes into this own.

There is something obviously not right with Roadster and he just didn’t show up.  Back to the drawing board with this puzzling Bob Baffert-trained colt. 

After an understandable pause in Graded Stakes action after the Breeders’ Cup, that all changes this week as Churchill Downs and Del Mar will host 10 Graded Stakes between them from Friday to Sunday. So quite a line up to sink our teeth into after the feasting and the giving of thanks on Thursday.

A very happy and bountiful Thanksgiving to you and yours and a heartfelt thanks to you the Super Screener member.  Without you there is no Super Screener and it is a privilege to serve you each week throughout the year. 

Until next weekend eat slow, go fast and win!
Mike Shutty