RECAP: Tiz the Law a Real Star in Florida Derby
- Updated: March 30, 2020
Photo: Lauren King/Gulfstream Park
Florida Derby (G1)
Tiz the Law left no doubt who’s the best in the East as he drew away at will distancing the field and submitting a running line that would make him a top win contender if the Kentucky Derby were to be run on the first Saturday in May.
1st Call = 89; 2nd Call = 99; Late Pace = 96; Final Speed Rating = 100
This precocious colt tracked the moderate pace set by Shivaree and Ete Indien, took command in the stretch and disposed of those rivals at will. Now connections just need to hold him together for 5 months, but for now, he is the Beast from the East.
Ete Indien ran a decent race but it looks like we have seen his best and added ground will not help his cause. He’ll remain a dangerous player going the middle distance routes.
Gouverneur Morris ran well considering that any horse coming from off the pace on this dirt course was at a big disadvantage on this day which really worked to Shivaree’s benefit as that one was able to sustain his bid to hold onto 2nd place at monster odds of 80-1.
Sir Shackleton
The Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, Yorkton, took full advantage of the glib Gulfstream Park surface and held on tenaciously to 2nd place at bountiful odds of 20-1 to spark a great pay out of $461 on a suggested Super Screener Exacta. Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about this bomber:
#9 Yorkton – Top Long Shot/Pace – While this horse might prefer shorter, he is very pace advantaged here as the one that will control the modest pace reserving more energy for that critical final furlong. Put a line through that last race as he uncharacteristically broke slowly while veering out badly from that outside post and was eliminated at the start. Makes amends 2nd off the layoff.
During our Saturday webcast, we shared the rationale for why this horse was sitting on a big race. His actual form was muddied up last out when he veered sharply to his right from the outside gate losing all kinds of ground in the process and getting eliminated from the start as a result.
More so than any other horse in the field, Yorkton sported a generous pace reserve advantage as indicated by those lofty BRIS 2nd Call figures. Along with a progression in his form cycle and 2nd race off the long layoff, he became a high-conviction long shot pick and even more so when Frosted Grace, another horses with strong pace figures, was scratched.
Appleton
The Super Screener called the Exacta in exact order and it was a 1-2 finish for trainer Todd Pletcher with Social Paranoia repeating that “long layoff/big win pattern from last year as indicated in the following past performance analysis:
The suggested Super Screener Exacta paid a generous $383.
Pan American
While Zulu Alpha was a clear “A” horse, I didn’t put him on top as horses that continue on after winning races they were actually pointed to don’t typically run back to those top performances. However, Zulu Alpha nearly pulled off another big one but his stablemate, Bemma’s Boy, a Super Screener “B” horse, caught him at the wire at odds of 9-1.
#2 Bemma’s Boy – Off Pace – Stablemate to #9 Zulu Alpha is quite tactical and is proven at this distance. Makes his GP debut and will sit a great trip here saving ground and in touch with the front runners throughout. Owns a very good turn of foot which will be deployed to his advantage in the final 2 furlongs of the race. Great shot to hit the board at a square price.
The B/A wagering strategy paid off resulting in a return of over $300 which wasn’t bad considering Zulu Alpha finished second at 3-5.
GP Oaks
Quite a bizarre race in that the winner, Swiss Skydiver — a confirmed off the pace type — broke out front, cut slow fractions and went on via a brilliant ride from Paco Lopez to win going away. Our Top Value play, Lucrezia, chased that rival throughout but could not over take that one and held on for second narrowly over a resurgent Lake Avenue.
With Santa Anita shuttered for the moment and the Keeneland meet cancelled there are the graded stakes schedule is up in the air. However, it appears Oaklawn Park will continue, and we’ll focus our attention on their card this coming Saturday to find the best wagering opportunities on the day.
Until this coming weekend, Go Fast, Stay Healthy and Win!
Mike
