Risen Star Recap: Derby Trail Takeaways & Scores!
- Updated: February 17, 2020
Photo: Eclipse Sportswire
Risen Star 1 & 2
As we correctly projected, the first division of this race was stronger of the two, having been run in a full second faster. Speed held up even better in the second division of the Risen Star despite a very similar pace set up.
Mr. Monomoy passed a big test in winning this first division of the Risen Star and earned enough points now to ensure a start in the Kentucky Derby. Questions remained for the Super Screener as to whether or not he could be effective with more ground, which is why he was a “B” horse and ranked around mid-pack. He proved us wrong but will have to continue forward progression in his form cycle if he is to make an impact on the first Saturday in May.
Enforceable and Silver State ran their expected races and will move on to the Louisiana Derby to try and secure the needed Kentucky Derby points while connections of both Digital and Scabbard will need to regroup with the latter colt going 5 wide throughout in this race.
Modernist was the Super Screener Top Board Hitter pick in the second division, and had we known he was going to go off at odds of nearly 13-1, we would have added “Top Value” to his designations. He didn’t get the best of starts but he tracked a modest pace and then proceeded to open up a bit to the wire.
Our Top Long Shot pick, Major Fed, was bet down to 9-1 just before post time and he ran a credible race for this being just his 3rd career start and first going 1 1/8 miles. He offers plenty of upside as he moves forward to his next prep.
The BRIS running lines for this race came back as follows for the winners:
Mr. Monomoy: 1st Call: 87; 2nd Call: 91; Late Pace: 97; Final Speed Rating: 96
Modernist: 1st Call: 87; 2nd Call: 94; Late Pace: 86; Final Speed Rating: 92
Mr. Monomoy submitted the far better effort and while he wouldn’t be a Kentucky Derby winner candidate off that running line, he has an opportunity to improve upon that in effort in his next prep. Modernist will need to move forward in a very big way in his next start in order to be considered a serious Kentucky Derby contender.
El Camino Real Derby
Bob Baffert was rewarded with a win here as he found that easy spot for Azul Coast, who tracked a modest pace and then held off all the late closers which included our Top Win pick Indian Peak, who finished 3rd, and the Long Shot choice, Wine and Whiskey, who finished 4th at 33-1. Pretty weak prep that won’t have any impact on the Kentucky Derby… but Azul Coast just stamped his ticket to the Preakness thanks to his victory here.
Albert M. Stall Memorial
The Super Screener Top Long Shot picks came through in a big way in this race, finishing 1st and 3rd sandwiching one of two Super Screener “A” horses in the race.
She’sonthewarpath performed precisely as we anticipated. She sat mid-pack and then found that seam on the inside and then pounced on Quebec to take the lead for good and win this while producing that new lifetime top we predicted while rewarding us with that $34 payoff.
Not to be outdone, the 2nd of our two Top Long Shot picks, Quick Witted, who we had ranked 4th in this race finished 3rd at insanely generous odds of 54-1 overcoming the long layoff and coming within a head of 2nd place. Could you imagine what that Exacta payoff would have been if she got up for 2nd? Nonetheless, a suggested Exacta ticket came back to pay nearly $500. Here’s the more in-depth analysis on these Super Screener Top Long Shot picks:
#4 She’sonthewarpath emerges as one of two very strong Top Long Shot players in this race. This very lightly raced 4 yr-old filly has a lot of upside and is cycling into a new lifetime top with razor sharp recent works that only adds more conviction. This will be just her 3rd start since September so that’s more upside than most of the runners in her… she could take a very big step forward here. Has shown a good turn of foot and that will play so well into this swift and pressured pace set up. Will sneak under that radar and anything close to M/L odds of 20-1 would be a bargain. Missed the Superfecta just once in the past 7 starts. Use prominently in your wagers.
#5 Quick Witted has been away since August so she may need a race but if she is even at her “B” level she could hit the board here at a huge price. Is one of the players in here that will benefit most from the pace set up which should help offset the downside of the long layoff, some. Is 8 for 10 in the Superfecta at this distance. When she is right, that turn of foot can be explosive. Will get completely overlooked here to our benefit. Risk/reward value proposition is highly favorable.
Fair Grounds Stakes
On a day when the turf course was quite kind to speed and only became more so with the scratch of #1 Wound Tight, our only presser “A” horse took this one wire-to-wire at great odds of 8-1. Here’s a bit more about what we said about this horse prior to the race:
Of the forwardly placed types the most advantaged player is “#4 Factor This. After dueling through brutal fractions in the Colonel Bradley last out he tired late but held on gamely to that 3rd place finish behind #5 Dontblamerocket. Moves forward off that race and will find this pace set up more manageable. Added ground a plus.
The other “A” horse, Synchrony, ran another solid effort on his favorite turf course and did so off that long layoff to complete the decent Exacta. A suggested Exacta wager came back to pay $315 which wasn’t too shabby considering Synchrony went off as the odds-on favorite.
Rachel Alexandra (G2)
Finite continued her winning ways, easily disposing of this field as the draw-away winner and finished in a time that would have been competitive in either of the Risen Star races. British Idiom lost no respect in that 2nd place finish off the long layoff. She needed that race and will build of that effort on the way to the Kentucky Oaks. Our Super Screener Top Value and Top Win player, Swiss Skydiver finished 3rd after getting sawed off at the head of the stretch and could not get back into a good stride.
This coming weekend is very quiet when it comes to graded stakes action and there are no Kentucky Derby preps on the calendar. However, there will be plenty of non-graded stakes featuring full and very bettable fields to choose from so keep the bankroll handy!
Until this coming weekend, Go Fast and Win!
Mike
