Super Screening the Risen Star - Super Screener
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Super Screening the Risen Star

2015-02-19_17-11-25

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

G2 Risen Star Stakes

This useful Derby prep follows the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes as another Kentucky Derby 50 pointer to the winner which creates a “win and you’re in” opportunity for the horse that can take down the Risen Star. It is a very competitive field of 11 three year-olds and, unlike most Kentucky Derby Preps, it is an interesting betting affair to boot.

The headliner in here is #10 International Star, a colt that has struggled to get respect and may still offer value in this field. Looked super in coming off the break to win the LeComte Stakes handily. This will be the Super Screener top choice as another move forward is projected today and he possesses that ideal “tactical” energy distribution profile which will enable him to prosper under various pace conditions. He is currently ranked 26th on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby rankings http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.

Pace here projects to be modest with low pressure. #2 Tiznow RJ, will benefit from the modest pace and should move forward off that third place finish in the LeComte Stakes. The California shipper, #1 St. Joe Bay and #4 J S Bach should also find pace conditions favorable to their early energy distribution profiles.

Second choice to #10 International Star will be the horse that finished just behind him in the LeComte, #6 War Story. That one had a pretty tough trip in that affair and projects to move solidly forward today.

The Super Screener will favor horses with balance across their 1st Call, 2nd Call and Late Pace categories that are presser or off-the-pace types that have shown a previous affinity for the racing surface. California shippers typically do well on this course and will be given additional consideration. Horses coming off a second or third start off a lay off move up at this point in the Derby preps and have an increasing advantage over horses making their first start off a vacation.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#10 International Star 9-2

#6 War Story 5-1

BOARD HITTERS

#2 Tiznow R J

#1 St. Joe Bay 12-1

#3 Bluff 12-1
#4 J S Bach 5-1

#5 Imperia 7-2

Let’s break down the Risen Star Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Fair Grounds – G2 Risen Star Stakes – 1 1/16 Miles

Field Size = 11

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 2

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 6

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 7

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 93; Second Call = 101; Final = 101

Projected Pace:  First Call = 93; Second Call = 94; Final = 101

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Favors horses that will balance across pace categories

Morning Line Favorite: International Star (CURRENT HRN RANKING: 26)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: International Star, War Story, Tiznow R J

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick: St. Joe Bay

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = B+

Notes:  If the slower pace scenario manifests, it will be interesting to see how some of the favorites in here handle that condition. Also, we’ll be watching St. Joe Bay to see how California form transfer to all track eastward.

POST RACE RECAP

Nothing very notable about the outcome of this race as it met all expectations with the exception of the much faster than projected pace.  The top two Super Screener picks finished 1-2.  Would have liked to have seen International Star finish the race with a bit more authority and stronger BRIS Late Pace figures.  If he can move 4 lengths better than this effort in his final Kentucky Derby prep, he becomes a legitimate Kentucky Derby threat.  For now, looks more like a grinder that would finish in the top half of the Derby field and maybe the bottom of the Superfecta if the race were to be run in a few weeks.  We have reduced our final Super Screener Prep Quality Rating from a B+ to a B.

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=FG&raceDate=02/21/2015&cy=USA&rn=11

WINNER: International Star

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                              1st Call = 93; 2nd Call = 101; Final = 101

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:        1st Call = 93; 2nd Call = 94; Final = 101

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:                1st Call = 102; 2nd Call = 105; Final = 97

TRACK BIAS: None

TOUGH TRIP: None

IMPRESSIVE EFFORTNone

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: B+

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: B