Santa Anita Derby Post Race Analysis

By Mike Shutty
Updated: April 3, 2015

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

G1 Santa Anita Stakes

#1 Dortmund will attempt to remain undefeated in six lifetime starts but will be facing his G2 San Felipe stakes foes #4 Bolo and #5 Prospect Park and both of these are expected to move forward today and will be seeking to earn those valuable Kentucky Derby qualifying points. To date the G1 Santa Anita Derby and the G1 Florida Derby are the among highest rated preps according to the Super Screener.

#6 Bad Read Sanchez, the hopelessly overmatched sprinter, will jump to the lead and will be tracked closely behind by #1 Dortmund and #4 Bolo. That pair will dispose of the early leader as they come into the stretch with #5 Prospect Park engaging those rivals mid-stretch but we project #1 Dortmund to prevail once again as this 17-hand colt is still learning and growing and has plenty left in the tank.

#2 One Lucky Dane, Baffert’s other horse, is no push over here and will provide a little interest as they hit mid-stretch. This one may be better than the barn is signaling right now and certainly, they would like to get this one to Louisville with at least a second place finish today.

#1 Dortmund is currently ranked #1 with #5 Prospect Park and #4 Bolo ranked 15^th and 29^th, respectively, on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby rankings. http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders

The Super Screener will favor horses with at least one start off a layoff, a first or second place finish in a graded stakes race, a decent foundation with an ascending form cycle, a presser energy distribution profile and sharp works.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#1 Dortmund 3-5

#4 Bolo 3-1

BOARD HITTERS

#5 Prospect Park 5-1

#2 One Lucky Dane 8-1

Let’s break down the G1 Santa Anita Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Santa Anita – G1 Santa Anita Derby – 1 1/8 Miles

Field Size = 6

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 1

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 5

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 6

BRIS Pace Par: First Call = 94; Second Call = 103; Final = 103

Projected Pace: First Call = 96; Second Call = 98; Final = 105

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Very balanced

Morning Line Favorite: Dortmund (CURRENT HRN RANKING: #1)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: Dortmund, Bolo, Prospect Park

Hit-the-Board Bomber: None

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = A

Notes: Dortmund is securely in the Kentucky Derby field so points are not a consideration for this horse and a decent effort is all the barn will be looking for. Baffert would surely like to get one more horse in the Derby field so One Lucky Dane will be all in when it comes to this prep. Bolo has the best shot to move forward off that San Felipe effort.

POST RACE RECAP: Well that was the most impressive effort to date along this Kentucky Derby trail. Dortmund remains undefeated in 6 lifetime starts and he just toyed with this high quality field to draw away and secure his rightful place as the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. We’ll see what his stablemate, American Pharoah has to say about that next week.

To put Dortmund’s Santa Anita performance in historical perspective, here’s a final prep pace/speed line comparison to recent Kentucky Derby winners with similar energy distribution profiles:

Dortmund 1^st Call = 111 2^nd Call = 118 Late Pace = 89 Final Speed Rating = 106

Big Brown 1^st Call = 107 2^nd Call = 117 Late Pace = 98 Final Speed Rating = 110

Silver Charm 1^st Call = 108 2^nd Call = 115 Late Pace = 84 Final Speed Rating = 102

Dortmund’s Santa Anita Derby compares favorably and is superior to Silver Charm’s Santa Anita Derby result. While Big Brown ran one of the most impressive final preps in the past 25 years, Dortmund is right behind him.

While One Lucky Dane, Bolo and Prospect Park were all far behind Dortmund in the end, their individual performances here would stand up very well to any other prep race run to date. This Santa Anita Derby was clearly the best prep race to date and it has been upgraded to a Super Screener quality rating of A+

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/SA040415USA8.pdf

WINNER: Dortmund

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS: 1^st Call = 94; 2^nd Call = 103; Final = 103

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS: 1^st Call = 96; 2^nd Call = 98; Final = 105

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS: 1^st Call =111; 2^nd Call = 118; Final = 106

TRACK BIAS: None

TOUGH TRIP: None

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: Dortmund

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: A

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: A+