Wood Memorial Post Race Analysis - Super Screener
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Wood Memorial Post Race Analysis

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

G1 Wood Memorial Stakes

#6 Daredevil makes his second start off that 4-month layoff to face six other rivals including the ultra tough #3 El Kabeir and the Florida shipper, #4 Frosted. #6 Daredevil needs to win or finish second to garner enough Kentucky Derby qualifier points to make the field. His last race going 7 furlongs in the Swale was a useful “rust shaker” but he’ll have to really move forward to make an impact here and still having something left for the Kentucky Derby. He completely flopped in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in a very wide trip in which he was close to the hot pace before completely dropping out of the race. He is back to two turns and going from that 7-furlong sprint to 1 1/8 miles distance. He has a lot of catching up to do and not looking like a top Kentucky Derby contender yet but he does have talent and a top three finish is all but certain.

#3 El Kabier showed a whole new dimension last out in winning the Gotham Stakes by reversing his normal early distribution of energy and instead, coming from nearly last to pick up the win and the Kentucky Derby points that has him comfortably in the gate on the first Saturday in May. He really doesn’t need to win this race and with basically having run a race every month since August, he really doesn’t need more conditioning. Connections are trying to grab more purse money here but they won’t be asking much from their charge (IF they believe he is a serious contender for the Kentucky Derby.)
#4 Frosted ships in from Florida where the competition was tougher than what he’ll face today and on a track that will prove to be less taxing than that tiring Gulfstream Park surface he encountered in the Fountain of Youth. He was way too close to a brutal pace with blinkers added that day and while he disappointed his backers, he did hang around for 4th for a decent effort. Look for a reversal today that puts him squarely in the Exacta at the finish.

#4 Frosted and #3 El Kabier are ranked 18th and 9th, respectively, while #6 Daredevil currently sits in the 19th spot on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby rankings. http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders

As in the Gotham and Withers Stakes, the Super Screener will be sticking with #7 Tencendur as the best long-shot prospect to hit the board.

The Super Screener will favor horses with at least one start off a layoff, but no more than 3 starts since a layoff, at least 4 lifetime starts, shippers from Florida or California, a decent foundation with an ascending form cycle, an off-the-pace energy distribution profile and sharp works.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#4 Frosted     5-2

#6 Daredevil 7-5

 

BOARD HITTERS

#5 El Kabier    3-1

#7 Tencendur 12-1

 

Let’s break down the G1 Wood Memorial and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Aqueduct – G1 Wood Memorial – 1 1/8 Miles

Field Size = 7

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 2

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 5

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 7

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 94; Second Call = 103; Final = 103

Projected Pace:  First Call = 99; Second Call = 103; Final = 102

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Very balanced

Morning Line Favorite: Daredevil (CURRENT HRN RANKING: #19)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: Frosted, Daredevil, El Kabier

Hit-the-Board Bomber: Tencendur

 

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = A-

 

Notes: El Kabier does not need to win this race so a good showing is all connections are looking for. Daredevil has a lot to overcome and he needs his A game to win this but will need to leave something in the tank for the Kentucky Derby. Frosted is likely to reverse form here and should prove to be best and you might even get a little value in this one as the public is likely to pound Daredevil at the windows.

POST RACE RECAP:

The anticipated reversal in form materialized in a big way for Frosted as he demonstrated his superiority over this field and confirmed that the Florida path to the Kentucky Derby is second in strength only to California.  His connections indicated that they “figured out” this colt and they proved to be correct.  That was a huge jump over his last start, however, so it begs the question, can he duplicate or improve on this Wood Memorial performance or was this his Kentucky Derby?  He’ll need to match this effort to contend with what is shaping up to be one of the highest quality and deep Kentucky Derby field in years.

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/AQU040415USA10.pdf

WINNER: Frosted

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                                 1st Call = 94; 2nd Call = 103; Final = 103

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:        1st Call = 96; 2nd Call = 104: Final = 104

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:                1st Call = 101; 2nd Call = 112; Final = 107

TRACK BIAS: None

TOUGH TRIP: None

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: None

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: A-

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: A-

 

 

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