Top Kentucky Derby Contender Emerges from Lecomte

Lecomte (G3)

A Super Screener “A” horse, War of Will, crushed this field while enjoying the perfect trip. This is a legit Kentucky Derby player as he submitted a running line that is very comparable to the early running lines produced by past Derby trail horses in their early prep before going on to Kentucky Derby glory. He also meets nearly all the Super Screener early prep criteria.

The running line from this race came back as follows:
1^st Call = 79; 2^nd Call = 81; Late Pace = 106; Speed Rating = 94.  

This is a classic early prep running line that is highly predictive of strong performance further down the Derby trail.  Note how the figures ascend into that huge Late Pace number. This colt should be on your Derby radar off of this top performance.

Gasparilla

This penultimate prep for Tampa Bay DOwns’ Florida Oaks featured a modest field of 3 year-old fillies going 7 panels. The winner, Molto Bella, tracked a fast pace and then drew away with relative ease, dropping BRIS Pace and Speed Ratings of nearly 90+ in every slot, which bodes well for handling a stretch out to a 2-turn route next out. None of the others impressed.

The Super Screener “A” horses last exiting races from Gulfstream Park did nothing in this race, with the biggest surprise being that they trailed this field.  Souper Escape is a presser type and Bella Ciao is an up-close off-the-pace type but neither filly played into their strengths on this day and on a surface that rewards early speed.

Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf

Starship Jubilee has now won this race in two consecutive years. The outside draw posed no problem as she got away quickly and then stalked on the outside in good position, knocking out an impressive effort.

The Super Screener Top Long Shot pick came through coming from far, far back to rally into 2^nd at generous odds of 35-1.

Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Bitacora before the race:

“The other mare that has scored well relative to her lofty M/L odds of 15-1 is #11 Bitcora. Unlike some in here, she is no stranger to the GP turf course having completed the Exacta in more than half of her 19 starts. What is most appealing about this mare is the fact that the pace set up really works in favor of her late closing kick.  She got a similar set up last out and closed in a rush to just miss the win. Her three starts from March through May on this turf course were run similarly as well and she finished in the Exacta against in each. She’s been away for a few months but trainer Peter Walder is quite effective at getting a top performance off the bench. Has missed the Superfecta just twice in the last 9 starts on turf and projects to hit it again here but at a much better price.”

The Super Screener Top Board Hitter pick, Mrs. Ramona G. rallied to get up for third, missing 2^nd by a neck and knocking us out of the suggested Trifecta ticket.

Sunshine Millions Classic

The two Super Screener win picks came through and comprised the Exacta, with Jay’s Way refusing to give up despite being passed by Souper Tapit. Suggested Trifecta was hit but it was modest due to the chalky players finishing 1^st and 3^rd.

Here’s what the Super Screener said about the top value play, Jay’s Way:

“#7 Jay’s Way can get this distance on a surface that he likes and which has been very kind to speed this month. Toss that last race on turf as he has never performed well on the lawn.  This is just his 3rd race off the layoff so look for a big move forward here only further supported by those sparkling recent works. #8 Souper Tapit looks logical as a very consistent board hitter that is advantaged by that early/middle energy distribution profile. Would probably prefer shorter but the modest pace will allow him to stick around longer in that final furlong.”

Oaklawn’s opening day is this coming Friday and it features the Smarty Jones Stakes, which is one of the early Derby preps on that surface. Of course, the Pegasus World Cup and the inaugural Pegasus World Cup Turf are the highlight for this weekend. Perhaps in coming years it will fulfill its promise to be top races barns point to from around the world. However, there are undercard graded stakes races that offer more interesting wagering opportunities.  

Until this weekend, Go Fast and Win!

Mike