25-1 Top Longshot Among Oaklawn CASHES – Super Screener
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25-1 Top Longshot Among Oaklawn CASHES

Photo: Coady

The stakes action Saturday took a back seat to the final race on the card – a Maiden Special Weight with a full field of 12.

In our Super Screener webcast, we went into some depth on our Top Win and Top Long Shot pick “A” horse #3 Violent Pass who went off at odds of over 25-1, considerably better than the 15-1 Morning Line odds. We even used that one as a single in our Pick 4 tickets.

What stood out about this colt were the following factors:

  1. Lightly raced, pricey colt in a field filled with horses that had many chances at breaking their maiden but failed to do so.
  2. Owned a huge pace advantage in a field absolutely devoid of speed
  3. Debut race was very strong laying out energy in a very balanced way finishing 3rd at 30-1
  4. Route-type breeding combined with that balanced distribution of energy signaled success on the stretch out to a route race.
  5. His last race was a disaster from the start, breaking dead last and then going wide…had no chance and it was easy to put a line through that race (which speaks to the benefits of watching race replays…a key part of the Super Screener process).
  6. Posted a strong series of works leading up this. 

Rocco got this one out front on the rail from that 3 hole taking the lead but throttling way back conserving energy and backing the field up. He then smartly moved his charge off the rail and got out to the 3 path in the clear while yielding the lead. When they hit the stretch, he had plenty of reserve energy and drew away without being threatened late.  A logical type finished 2nd to complete the bountiful $2 Exacta payoff of $249. 

This 25-1 shot winner completed a Pick 4 that came up chalky in the first 3 legs and helped prompt a nice payoff of $421 with one of our Pick 4 tickets cashing.

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The top two ranked Super Screener horses comprised the Exacta. As I mentioned on our Saturday Super Screener Member webcast, Mia Mischief was so advantage by the pace set up here pressing comfortably and drawing away for the win while offering no value. If anyone had any doubt that Amy’s Challenge was back note how she showed guts and determination in setting the swift pace while holding on doggedly to 2nd place moving forward in her form cycle as we projected. 

Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Amy’s Challenge:

This race really sets up well for the Super Screener lone “A” horse #6 Amy’s Challenge. Her affinity for both this racing surface and the distance is clear. In addition, this is just her 3rd race since last May so plenty of upside potential here especially when you consider that excellent series of works she has submitted in preparation for this. Seeks to return to last year’s top performances and form cycle analysis indicates she is on course to do just that.

Adding more pleasure to the outcome of this race was the horse we featured in our Top Long Shot column, Lady Suebee, who completed the Trifecta at gargantuan odds of 45-1. She fulfilled on what we projected in our commentary:

#7 Lady Suebee, out of the Sadler barn, is capable of surprising some.  Good to see that pick up in those recent works and now that cut back in distance after contesting super hot pace sets up while routing will really work to her benefit. Will own more of that late-race energy reserve on the distance and pace cut back which she’ll absolutely needs to contend here.

Oaklawn R11

Despite the 9-month layoff, Global Campaign served notice that he is back and better than ever. He enjoyed the perfect trip sitting off the hot and contested pace drawing past a stubborn Super Screener “A” horse Yorkton who ran a huge one here doing all the dirty work dueling with the other Super Screener “A” horse, Rare Form throughout but prevailing for a hard-fought 2nd place. The pilots on both charges didn’t take us up on our recommendation to back up the field through slow fractions and instead banged heads through a blistering pace. Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about the top two finishers before the race:

#9 Yorkton – PACE – 6 yr-old veteran achieved most of his success on the Woodbine Tapeta surface. However, that last effort on the GP surface was quite stellar and put a line through the prior race as it was botched at the start. Distance cut back and a bit softer pace will aid this horse’s chances in his 3rd race off the layoff. On the knock side nearly every one of his 7 wins have come while on the lead so he will have to outrun #6 Rare Form in the early going to secure that advantage.

#5 Global Campaign – PRESSER/OFF PACE –  Another that has not raced in a very long time. Was last seen in July finishing 3rd in the G2 Jim Dandy behind Tax and Tacitus. Gets back to sprinting here and anything close to that huge debut win going 7 furlongs on this surface gets the job done here. Closed his recent series of works with a brilliant one. Could produce right of the shelf.

A Super Screener suggested Exacta wager with Global Campaign over Yorktown returned $176.

Bachelor

Okay you win, I am completely backing off Sir Rick!  I have learned my lesson…you werl right and I was dead wrong! However, redemption was at hand as I moved Long Weekend way up after the scratches as the pace scenario was going to be more favorable now for that colt. He went wire-to-wire with another another top contender, Echo Town finishing 2nd.  The fractions were fierce so it was a surprise that it was these two horses out front throughout that prevailed over the others.

Oaklawn R8

Sneaking Out was another coming in off a very long layoff. He was a clear contender and he did return to that stellar form displayed last year in this 2020 debut. It was a clever ride by Joel Rosario as he was part of the early pace but backed off some reserving his charge’s energy then re-engaging for the hard fought win to pass the other logical Super Screener runners to produce the very chalky pay out.

The first Saturday in May won’t be quite the same, will it? But Oaklawn Park is doing their best to make it a special day of racing, nonetheless, featuring an overflowing field of some of the best 3 year-olds in the country competing in the G1 Arkansas Derby with 100 Kentucky Derby points going to the winner. It will be supported by a rich under* card of deep and competitive fields.  Can’t wait!

Until this coming weekend, Go Fast, Stay Healthy and Win!

Mike

2 Comments

  1. Michael

    April 28, 2020 at 9:35 am

    Tuned in to the Live FB broadcast last Saturday to watch Mike review the day’s highlighted races and then give out the R11 longshot bomb at Oaklawn. What a way to end the card when Mike’s touted horse, Violent Pass crossed the wire first at 25:1.! Wagered a little to win a lot… $10 WPS, $20 PS, and a $5 3-horse EB …$1,329 collected! Good luck,Mike, with your analysis of the Arkansas Derby card on Saturday!

  2. michael marchetti

    April 27, 2020 at 2:44 pm

    Second week in a row by using Mike’s long shots pics and my handicapping I hit the pic 4 (bet $160) and super for .20 cents (bet $28.) in the 11th race at Oaklawn…Thanks to you all. Michael