RECAP: Arkansas Derby Day CASHES + KY Derby Implications – Super Screener
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RECAP: Arkansas Derby Day CASHES + KY Derby Implications

Photo By: Coady Photography

Arkansas Derby 1 & 2 (G1)

Was there any doubt? As we detailed in our Thursday evening webcast, this was Charlatan’s race to lose. He was going to be left alone on a clear lead after Shooters Shoot was scratched earlier in the week. He wasted no time jumping to the lead from that ideal inside draw. Super sharp effort off the layoff and something to build on… 1 ¼ distance is still a question for me.

Basin, the Super Screener Top Value play, was quite gallant in chasing Charlatan throughout, holding onto 2nd, showing he belongs with this crop and will continue to improve over the summer. Gouverneur Morris advanced in his form cycle as well, and if he ever gets a swift and pressured pace set up, he’ll look even better as he has no distance limitations.  

Of the 5 long shots in the race, the Super Screener tabbed Winning Impression as the top choice. That colt did not disappoint us as he rallied for 4th at 20-1 besting all the other long shots in the race. Here’s what we had to say about Winning Impression before the race:

#9 Winning Impression is one of those classic Dallas Stewart-trained deep closers who has had to overcome slow pace set ups in all four of his route starts. Thanks to his strong late turn of foot, he has been able to win two of those starts including the last one on this surface after a layoff. While he won’t get a hot pace here it will be more honest and in running against this type he will be far back in the field…perhaps a dozen lengths or so. Unlike others, no question about his ability to get 9 furlongs and with this being his 2nd race off the layoff coupled with that razor sharp work submitted last week, he is primed to pass a lot of tired horses in stretch to make an impact in the Exotics at a big, big price. He really doesn’t have much to beat here so use with confidence as a vertical “under” single.

Super Screener suggested Exacta and Superfecta wagers returned $204.

Arkansas Derby 2

Not sure which performance was more impressive, Nadal’s or his stablemate Charlatan… either way, Bob Baffert took both divisions of the Arkansas Derby. Joel Rosario wisely let Wells Bayou use himself up from that outside draw in pursuit of the early lead. He then pressed that rival and pounced at will as they hit the stretch, easily repelling the bid by the logical 2nd choice, King Guillermo. Farmington Road was the top board hitter pick to take one of the “under” spots and he finished 4th

Taishan had nothing at all in this race in a very disappointing performance… one of those cases in which the big effort last out was too much and coming back in 3 weeks was not enough time to recover. 

Storm the Court and Silver Prospector were both faded by the Super Screener and they finished up the track. 

The Super Screener suggested Exacta wager returned $160.

Here’s how Charlatan and Nadal’s BRISNET running lines came back:

Charlatan – 1st Call: 97; 2nd Call: 111;  Late Pace: 88  Final Speed Rating: 102

Nadal – 1st Call: 94; 2nd Call: 108;  Late Pace: 92  Final Speed Rating: 102

Note their performances were near identical, but Nadal gets the slight nod here due to knocking out 92+ BRIS Pace/Speed Rating figures throughout.

Oaklawn Handicap (G2)

The Super Screener was quite high on the chances of By My Standards especially after that late scratch of Improbable. Here’s what we had to say about this rapidly improving colt prior to this 3rd race off the layoff:

#12 By My Standards – PRESSER/OFF PACE – Is living up to the all the hype he earned off that G2 Louisiana Derby win last year. Was away for 9 months, but came back and ripped off two very impressive wins, tracking very slow pace set ups and then deployed that sparkling turn of foot to crush his foes. Continues that form progression here and is a key “B” contender (changed to “A” in final edition). Crazy good works leading up to this. Another that could win this and a key board hitter.

In our Super Screener webcast we highlighted why we were so high on By My Standards:

Note how slow the pace set ups were in those two comeback races off the 9-month layoff, yet he won going away in each race thanks to that incredible turn of foot that produced those monster BRIS Late Pace figures of 109 – 111 while advancing in his form cycle. We predicted another big move here and that is what he delivered as noted below:

This is the 2nd time in a row the Super Screener did not give enough respect to Warrior’s Charge out of the Brad Cox barn. He did benefit from another soft early pace but as the race quickened, he dug in stubbornly preventing Mr Freeze from getting by him as they approached the wire… duly noted.

Oaklawn R10

The Super Screener two “A” horses finished 1st and 4th, respectively, in this race with our “B” horses completing the other two Superfecta slots. Very orderly race that resulted in suggested Exacta and Trifecta wagers cashing for $232.

Oaklawn Finale R14

We were running out of time in our Super Screener webcast, but at the close we did squeeze in our top selection in the final leg of the Pick 4 and it was #9 Take Charge d’Oro. Thanks to that pick, we cashed on a couple of Pick 4 tickets avoiding a chalk out with this 18-1 long shot boosting the Pick 4 payoff to a decent $232 per ticket. 

In a couple of weeks several other tracks will come back on line including Churchill Downs and we look forward to a more “normal” racing line up this summer. Next weekend will be quite light when it comes to any stakes action so we’ll go with the best wagering races available. 

Until this coming weekend, Go Fast, Stay Healthy and Win!

Mike

One Comment

  1. John DeMichael

    May 4, 2020 at 6:33 pm

    lucky enough to cash in all three races