Belmont Superfecta Finishers - The Surprising Stats - Super Screener
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Belmont Superfecta Finishers – The Surprising Stats

BELMONT SUPERFECTA KEY INSIGHTS

Most horseplayers have assumed that when it comes to the Belmont Stakes, that the 1 ½ miles distance has to favor closers.  Well, they got that half right.  If you are talking about third and fourth place, both mid-pack and, to some degree, deep closers do dominate the bottom of Trifecta’s and Superfecta’s. But, that is not the case with the win and place spot, particularly in recent years.

While doing our analysis to create the screening criteria for the Belmont Super Screener, we came upon some interesting insights centered on the role of “running styles” and their impact on the outcome of the top four Belmont finishers.

Below is a chart we compiled that shows the top four finishers of the past 10 editions of the Belmont Stakes, their odds and their Energy Distribution Profile. In addition, we captured the quarter mile and 6 furlong fractional times of each race.

Click to view full-size.

Click to view full-size.

 

SUMMARY OF INSIGHTS:

•  Of the 40 possible finish opportunities, Closers/Deep Closers accounted for 28 or 70% which is identical to what you’ll find for the Kentucky Derby (70%) over the same 10-year period.  Most of the closers took up the 3rd and 4th place slots of the Superfecta.

• At least 2 Closers/Deep Closers hit the Superfecta in the past 10 editions (and this pattern holds even if you go back to the past 15 years) of the Belmont Stakes.

• Only one Pace types has won the Belmont Stakes in the past 10 years (or even the past 15 years) and that was Zito-trained Da’Tara in the 2008 Belmont in which the Triple Crown bidder, Big Brown, was pulled up.

• In just the past 4 years, Pressers and Pace types have dominated the Exacta and of the 7 horses meeting these running styles only 1 went off at odds of less than 9 -1.

• 2nd place is where wire types go to fade and that has been the case for the past 3 years in a row.

• Third place is where you’ll find most of they 20-1+ shot bombers landing and all of them were closers.

• Most of the horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby and hit the board in the Belmont Stakes finished in 2nd place.

• Unlike the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, the pace in the Belmont Stakes has little bearing on which “running style” will be favored.

KEY 2015 BELMONT STAKES TAKE AWAYS:

• This year’s Superfecta is likely to be dominated by horses that are running back from the Kentucky Derby, as all but 3 horses entered in the Belmont stakes ran in the Derby.

• At least one closer will hit the Superfecta and, if history repeats itself, we could see two closers hit the board.  The Super Screener likes two closers in particular and the morning line odds on one of those horses is currently at 30-1+.

• A Triple Crown is on the line and American Pharoah will face 9 other rivals including 6 horses that ran good races in the Derby and have had the added advantage of an extra two weeks of rest.  The Super Screener has revealed the two horses with the best shot to upset American Pharoah’s pursuit.

• There will likely be up to 5 horses that will go off at 20-1+…which one of those bombers has the best shot to hit the Superfecta?…our selection is probably the last horse most people would select!