How Does American Pharoah Compare to Past Triple Crown Bidders?

By CandiceCurtis
Updated: June 4, 2015

HOW DO PAST FAILED TRIPLE CROWN BIDDERS STACK UP AGAINST THE BELMONT SUPER SCREENER CRITERIA?

We thought it would be interesting to go back 20 years and pass the eight horses that qualified as Triple Crown bidders during that time period (I’ll Have Another qualified but was withdrawn from the Belmont Stakes) but failed to get the job done through our Belmont Super Screener criteria. The results were quite interesting and we decided to add American Pharoah to the mix to see how he stacked up against the other Triple Crown glory chasers.

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Here are key insights we derived from this analysis:

• Just merely running in both the Derby and the Preakness is such a huge drain on a horse and it leaves fresher horses entering the Belmont at a distinct advantage. Last horse to run in both the Derby and Preakness and win the Belmont Stakes was Afleet Alex 10 years ago.

• Funny Cide, Silver Charm and Smarty Jones were the clear top three runners that, according to the Super Screener, had the best shot to take the Triple Crown. Their only Super Screener miss was running two big races in the Derby and Preakness. Silver Charm and Smarty Jones lost by the narrowest of margins and Funny Cide caught a sloppy track and a very tough foe in Empire Maker.

• Note that 5 of the 8 Triple Crown pursuers lost the Belmont Stakes by 2 lengths or less.

• War Emblem and Charismatic were up against it with several Super Screener misses. Remember, trainers are trying to get their charges ready to peak in the Kentucky Derby, not necessarily the Belmont Stakes.

• In addition to running in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, failed Triple Crown bidders had either done too much racing, regressed from the Derby to the Preakness and/or were out of balance in how they distribute energy. In fact, all their “numbers” looked great, hence the super low odds.

• It appears that Triple Crown candidates with more than 3 misses on Super Screener criteria are pretty sure “stand against the win” propositions. American Pharoah sits at 2 misses and rates just below the top company of failed Triple Crown bidders, Funny Cide, Silver Charm and Smarty Jones.

THE BIG QUESTION

How critical is the other American Pharoah Super Screener miss when it comes to his chances at taking down the Triple Crown and where do the other two horses that score higher than American Pharoah factor in the mix?

To get the answer to this question and so many others, order your Belmont Stakes Super Screener now. And, as an added bonus this year, we are Super Screening the 5 other Grade 1 races providing complete analysis and wagering recommendations for each race and horizontal wagers like the Pick 4 and Pick 5.