Blue Grass Day Recap – Top Pick Scores, Derby Horse?

Blue Grass (G2)

The Super Screener Top Win and Top Board hitter pick, Art Collector, just crushed this field of Kentucky Derby “B” and “C” players. His running line coming out of this race, setting aside the fact that the Keeneland surface is quite glib with records crashing each day, was Kentucky Derby contender material:

1^st Call = 96; 2^nd Call = 106; Late Pace = 98; Speed Rating = 104

With that kind of running line, it puts this late developing colt among the top Kentucky Derby contenders with 7 weeks to go. 

And what about the filly, Swiss Skydiver? While well beaten by Art Collector, she took care of the rest of the field with 4 ¾ lengths between her and third place finisher, Rushie. What made her 2^nd place finish here even more impressive is that she did all the dirty work up front as closers accounted for the next 7 spots. 

Our Top Long Shot pick, Attachment Rate, needed one more biscuit to close the ½ length gap that would have gotten him in the bottom of the Trifecta. He did finish best, however, of the 6 long shot bombers in this race. 

Thanks to Leinster kicking off the Pick 4 by closing the deal at 10-1 and Venetian Harbor missing the win, we had a Pick 4 ticket cash for $361. Here’s a look at the rest of the Keeneland card…

Appalachian (G2)

The Super Screener was spot on in screening out this Top Value and Top Win pick play, Enola Gay, out of the Shug McGaughey barn.  Got a great set up stalking the speed on the inside and then showed a brilliant turn of foot to win to just get past a stubborn, Walk In Marrakesh. She had no trouble making the transition to a route race as we projected. Here’s what the Super Screener said about Enola Gay before the race:

In the end, the Super Screener landed on #2 Enola Gay as the tepid top choice. This filly out of the Shug McGaughey barn, is very lightly raced and has not been seen since last November. While she has only sprinted in her two starts she is bred to succeed up to a 1 1/4 miles so that added ground here will not pose a problem.  Her debut on the undulating turf course at Kentucky Downs was really impressive as she finished that race with a stout BRIS Late Pace number of 96. Those 6.5 furlong affairs at Kentucky Downs play more like 1 mile. So, she owns a very swift turn of foot which will come in handy here and Julien Leparoux, who has always done his best riding at Keeneland, returns to the saddle. She has been working steadily and forwardly leading up this race and given most of the field has had many chances to break through, she offers a strong value option as a filly with far more upside than most of her other rivals.

The Super Screener suggested Exacta wager paid a surprisingly generous return of $334.

Madison (G1)

Great race but boring return with the Chad Brown chalk, Guarana, coming back on Mia Mischief once that rival passed her. The pace was not hot enough for Sally’s Curlin to do better than 5^th and Amy’s Challenge wilted early with no excuses other than a minor scuffle at the start. The Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, Wildwood’s Beauty, who was ranked 4^th overall did finish 4^th and at better-than-expected odds of 37-1.

Shakertown (G2)

Talk about a blanket finish…only 2 lengths separated the top 8 finishers and that made sense as the Super Screener indicated you would have to go about 9 deep to get the winner in this evenly matched field. In the end, it was a couple of horses for course that got the job done including Totally Boss completing the Exacta who we featured on our Thursday evening webcast.  In the suggested wagers, I flipped Totally Boss out for a much higher priced closer, Corruze.  That horse went off at shocking odds of 98 to 1 and finished within 1.5 lengths of the winner. 

Something clearly happened to Wildman Jack at the start as he ran last throughout. Biggest disappointment in the race was Peter Miller’s Texas Wedge. Was involved some early and had nothing on this day.

Give Bound for Nowhere credit as he was the only speed horse that made any impact in this race.

Ashland (G1)

This was Venetian Harbor’s race to lose and she did but held on clearly for 2^nd with her fellow Californian, Speech, not only getting the job done but did so rather impressively via the perfect trip. With Speech on top, that was going to help the Pick 4 pay offs especially after Leinster won the first let at 10-1.

Jenny Wiley (G1)

There was no doubt about it, while Jolie Olimpica gave everything she had, Rushing Fall was just too good as the Super Screener Top Win pick.  Juliet Foxtrot continues to impress me and she will only move forward off this game effort.

The biggest day in racing this spring/summer is upon on us. The always much anticipated opening of Saratoga happens this week and on Saturday they’ll be featuring the G1 Coaching Club of America. Not to be outdone, the spotlight on Saturday falls on Monmouth Park for the G1 Haskell supported by 4 Graded Stakes races on the card.  Even Del Mar checks in with the G2 San Diego. Let’s freeze the calendar and enjoy this one for awhile! 

Until this coming weekend, Go Fast and Win! 

Mike