Met Mile Day RECAP & CASHES!
- Updated: July 13, 2020
Met Mile (G1)
Vekoma was a very strong Top Win conviction play by the Super Screener. The fact that he went wire-to-wire here through fast fractions while stretching out to the mile was even more impressive. However, this kind of exerted effort may result in a pause in that form cycle progression next out at a low price as connections seek to stretch him out even further. But, that one-turn mile was the perfect set up for this resurgent 4 yr-old. Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about this horse prior to the race:
“TOP BOARD HITTER/PRESSER/OFF PACE Up and coming, lightly raced 4 yr-old with the unusual, paddle-like stride that won his debut going one turn on the Belmont surface and crushed foes last out in the G1 Carter in his only other start on this race track. The “numbers” from that race are inflated as they always are when the Belmont surface comes up sloppy, but it was an improvement none the less over his previous start. This colt is just getting started on his come back after showing promise heading into the Kentucky Derby last year. He was away for 10 months but returned with a very strong win back in March. He’ll sit an absolute perfect trip 2 to 3 lengths off the pace leader, Warrior’s Charge, reserving energy throughout leaving plenty in the tank for the critical stretch drive seeking to outrun Mr Freeze and McKinzie for the top prize. Might even get a little value as well. Very strong win contender.”
Mr Freeze was a huge disappointment not running a lick with no excuses. The poor finish by McKinzie was not a shock as we had warned that he… “Does face some up and comers that are proven at these one-turn set ups so no one is going to concede this race to him and he’ll have to work hard to earn the victory.”
Kicking myself for not giving more love to Network Effect…at least enough to include him in suggested wagers. I sometimes try to get too tight in order to keep ticket costs, reasonable.
“This is Chad Brown’s contribution to the field and he is a stubborn colt that runs tough nearly every time. In fact his only bomb came in the G1 Cigar Mile last Dec. against similar. His 3 wins have come going one turn and while 7 furlongs may be his best distance, a one-turn mile is well within his range. This one is putting out mixed signals so cover some.”
Manhattan (G1)
The Super Screener was quite confident that Chad Brown would sweep the Exacta here and it was the Super Screener’s top two picks that indeed took down the Exacta with Instilled Regard just getting the best of his stablemate, Rockemperor, in the end.
#2 Rockemperor – TOP VALUE/TOP BOARD HITTER/CLOSER One of three in here for Chad Brown and this 4 yr-old is best suited to the 1 1/4 miles distance and, based on form cycle analysis, he projects to be sitting on a big race in just his 3rd start since August. Looked to be the best horse in his US debut finishing 3rd in the G1 Belmont Derby after trailing in the field of 14 and not having the easiest stretch run. He has not missed the Trifecta at this distance in 5 starts. Was put away from August to March returning with a solid effort in the G2 Muniz Memorial. Was even better in his 2nd race back just missing the win against United in the G2 Whittingham. Breaks through here and owns enough turn of foot to overcome the slow pace. He is fully cranked for a new lifetime top.
#1 Instilled Regard – OFF PACE Stablemate to #2 Rockemperor and #5 Devamani and has a pace advantage over that pair. He can get 1 1/4 miles but the 1 1/8 miles is really his best distance as evidenced by his two recent wins including his last start in the G2 Fort Marcy in which he held off a late-charging #5 Devamani after sitting closer to that blistering pace so his deep closing stablemate had all the advantage last out. This will be just his 2nd start since March so there will be plenty left in the thank for this contest.
A couple of suggested Exacta wagers clicked for just about $220 on what was a pretty chalky day.
Suburban (G2)
The Super Screener closed strongly nailing the Exacta cold with Tacitus crushing this field, and our 2nd choice, Moretti just getting up for 2nd. It was about time that Tacitus finally got the job done but it took meeting easier to do it. Let’s see where he goes from here.
Both Joevia and Forewarned were scratched and they were the keys on the bottom of suggested Trifecta tickets so there were no active wagers in this race but always good to hit the Exacta in exact order.
Poker (G3)
The “B’s” had it as our four “B” players completed all slots of the Superfecta including our Top Value pick, Seismic Wave, who finished 2nd at 6-1. When it came to the winner, Social Paranoia we had warned…
“Don’t count this Pletcher charge out. It is clear that he needs ultra firm turf for his best but did not get that condition last out against some tough rivals. He tracked a very hot pace and faded while looking uncomfortable throughout. Cuts back to the mile distance and will probably sit a bit closer to the pace with Jose Ortiz aboard which will be an advantage. May finally get value.
The Super Screener was quite high on Seismic Wave and he earned the Top Value Play designation on the basis of these observations:
“He’s a closer but owns the best turn of foot in the field and he’ll need to deploy that advantage here to have any shot given the projected slow pace. He ran a great prep off that 7+ months layoff closing from far back and swinging very wide into the stretch to finish a game 4th behind good ones. He’ll improve of that effort which puts him in the win mix at a price. One to use.”
So what happened to our lone “A” horse and our Top Win pick, Valid Point who finished last in the field of 8 at 7-2? I encourage you to watch the replay of that race. Castellano, from the inside draw, was hemmed in at the rail sitting behind the pace leader, Dream Friend and Got Stormy. Watch how Valid Point was climbing throughout the early stages looking very uncomfortable due the dawdling pace and Castellano had no exit points as other rivals came up on the outside. He waited patiently behind the dueling pair but those front runners began to tire and Value Point could not get out of that inside spot with additional rivals now rallying down the stretch to his outside and no seam opening up in front. Castellano had no choice but to hold his position and get shuffled back to last. I don’t raise these observations to make excuses, I point them out because Value Point will be a high confidence play next out and, because he finished last in the G3 Poker, we may even get some value despite this colt coming from the Chad Brown barn. Watch for his next start to be at Saratoga and it will be a winning one.
In this twist around kind of COVID-induced racing schedule, we get the unusual July opening of the Keeneland “Spring” meet this weekend and the Saturday card will be spectacular. It will feature 6 G1/G2 races highlighted, of course, by the Blue Grass Stakes which will feature a full field and promises to be a great wagering affair. If that wasn’t enough, Del Mar opens a week earlier on Friday, July 10th with some great graded stakes action to come in the weeks that follow.
Until this coming weekend, Go Fast and Win!
Mike
