Dubai Hits + Potential Derby Longshots You Should Remember - Super Screener
Super Screener

Dubai Hits + Potential Derby Longshots You Should Remember

Photo by Kaz Ishida/Eclipse Sportswire

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G2 UAE Derby

Will this be the year that a UAE Derby runner makes an impact on the Kentucky Derby Trifecta?  Well, both Thunder Snow and Epicharis earned plenty of points to enter the Derby gate on the first Saturday in May, and they were clearly much the best in this field on a day when the track actually played fair due to taking heavy moisture during the day versus the speed-biased surface which is more typical.


Connections of Epicharis have all but confirmed that they will not send their precocious colt stateside to compete in the Derby. Todd Pletcher’s Master Plan made a good accounting of himself finishing a decent 3rd earning 20 Derby points but connections will probably wait for a go in the Preakness Stakes.  The fact that the highly regarded Lancaster Bomber finished 4th really flatters the top 3 finishers making this one of the stronger UAE Derby editions in history.

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Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about the top 2 finishers:

#10 Epicharis: Japan’s top 3yr-old. Undefeated/Derby qualified. Dirt, distance, form cycle and running style all favorable…”

#13 Thunder Snow: Never missed the Superfecta. Has Group 1 win. Last was impressive. Preferred presser style. Distance?”

Hopes were running high as they turned for home as our top long shot bomber pick, Qatar Man, was in contention even as they were coming down the stretch but the others were just too tough and he finished a game 6th at 30-1.  
The good news is a .10 cent Superfecta suggested wager hit.  The bad news is it paid peanuts as the top 4 finishers were the top 4 favorites.


G1 Dubai World Cup

I sure hope you had the opportunity to watch this race.  If not, I highly encourage you to watch the replay. Of my many years as a passionate horse player and racing fan, this will go down as the most impressive race I have ever witnessed.  Arrogate, a Super Screener early find, did the impossible.  He broke poorly getting banged around (and he does have a history of less than favorable starts) and ended up dead last in a field of 14.  Then, he was struggling on the dampened surface slipping and struggling to get into stride.  However, once he collected himself (and hats off to jockey Mike Smith for the patience he exercised), he leveled off and then started that now famous dominating stride and passed rivals in a flash drawing away easily passing a very game Gun Runner.  What a race horse!  I can’t imagine we’ll ever see another horse that will complete the Travers, Pegasus, World Cup triple.  Arrogate makes American Pharoah look like a claimer.


At 2-5, we really needed a bomb to finish second to make money in a race that wasn’t shaping up to be a value opportunity.  Our second choice, Neolithic, nearly obliged with a strong 3rd place finish at 20-1.  Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about this colt:


“#11 Neolithic is getting good at the right time sporting a very positive form cycle and possesses the perfect energy distribution profile for this track surface.  Working up to this in energetic fashion.  Is the best candidate to finish 2nd to #9 Arrogate.”


Gun Runner ran an unbelievably super race overshadowed by the mind-blowing performance of Arrogate.  The Super Screener did hit on the $30 Exacta but it is hardly worth noting as the focus of this race was the amazing performances.  Here’s what the Super Screener said about a year-long Super Screener favorite, Gun Runner:


“#5 Gun Runner has done everything asked of him all year long.  As consistent as they come and always runs his best.  Probably best at 1 1/16 to 1 1/8 distances as his best finish at 1 1/4 was 3rd place in the G1 Travers and G1 Kentucky Derby.  Will relish this dirt course which is so kind to pressers propelling them to run further than usual.”
Hoppertunity needed to hit the board in order for more suggested wagers to click but the old boy finished a respectable 6th after projecting to finish 3rd or 4th.


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G3 Spiral Stakes

The Super Screener top pick, Shiraz, was scratched and so it was the other Michael Maker charge, Fast and Accurate, who stalked the pace set by stablemate, En Hanse, and then continued on for the win while trying to hold off the Super Screener top long shot bomber pick, Blueridge Traveler…that one ran up the rail finishing a strong 2nd at unbelievable odds of 35-1.  Many of our subscribers (and I hope you were one of them) threw our 5th ranked horse, Convict Pike, into the suggested wagers. That move resulted in hitting the $.50 Trifecta for a total of over $1,400.  Congrats to all of you who included that 5th ranked horse after the scratch in your exotics.  


Yet another Super Screener long shot bomber hits the board at a huge price:


“#1 Blueridge Traveler is a Super Screener Long Shot Bomber special.  Pace doesn’t matter, this horse takes up resident at the back of the pack and then just keeps coming like a freight train.  Is begging for this added distance and will be passing a lot of horses down the lane.  TOP LONG SHOT Begging for the 1 1/8 miles distance.  A true grinder that just keeps running showing no quit.  Has high action which translates well for the switch to synthetics.  Barn is always dangerous with Superfecta long shots.  Use heavily “under”


G3 Sunland Derby

The Super Screener completely missed on tabbing Hence as a viable contender.  After the trouncing in the G3 Southwest Stakes with no excuses, there was just nothing to recommend.  However, this was a much better-than-it-looked effort and Hence emerges as an early Super Screener long shot bomber Kentucky Derby pick despite getting a favorable pace set up.  He absolutely freaked in this race and will be well served to sit it out until the first Saturday in May.  Might be the forgotten horse at huge odds, so tuck this one away as potential hidden gem.  Take nothing away from Hedge Fund who did all the hard work early under blazing fractions and still held on for 3rd.  


Now we are getting into the final round of serious Kentucky Derby preps which will be completed in a mere three weeks. With 100 points to the winner and 40 points to the 2nd place finisher, Exacta participants are assured a spot in the Kentucky Derby field.  This Saturday the G1 Florida Derby and G2 Louisiana Derby will take center stage featuring some of the top Derby contenders on the trail…don’t miss it!


Until then…Go fast and win!




ONLY 39 Days ’til the KY DERBY!