El Camino Real Recap - Super Screener
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El Camino Real Recap

2015-02-16_10-42-49

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

G3 El Camino Real Stakes

The G3 El Camino Real Stakes run at 1 1/8 miles on the Golden Gate Tapeta surface is good for 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner. This race does not feature a top 20 horse in our 2015 Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby rankings, however. http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.

Most of the field, of course, features those 3 year-olds that prefer turf or synthetic courses. Very surprised to see #10 Mischief Clem here as his best races are clearly on the dirt at Santa Anita.

Not a crazy pace set up here so you have to favor horses with more of a pressing style though on this surface at the route distance, off-the-pace horses have the edge.

The Super Screener will favor horses with superior BRIS pace figures especially in the second call and late pace categories. Horses will be rated off their turf and synthetic races and two-turn experience is a must here. Under that criteria, #5 Cross the Line, #3 Metaboss and #7 Soul Driver make up the top three win contenders. #9 Conquest Typhoon deserves consideration as well due to the pairing of 95+ late pace figures and the drop against easier.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#5 Cross the Line 5-1

#3 Metaboss 8-1

BOARD HITTERS

#7 Soul Driver 10-1

#9 Conquest Typhoon 5-2

Let’s break down the El Camino Real Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Golden Gate – G3 El Camino Real Stakes – 1 1/8 miles synthetic

Field Size = 10

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 1

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 1

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 2

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 91; Second Call = 98; Final = 98

Projected Pace:  First Call = 91; Second Call = 96; Final = 92

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Favors horses that will press or come from off the pace

Morning Line Favorite: Conquest Typhoon (CURRENT HRN RANKING: 23)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: Cross the Line, Metaboss, Soul Driver

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Soul Driver

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = D

Notes:  This will probably not be remembered as a serious prep for the Kentucky Derby as the field if loaded with turf/synthetic types that are just trying to grab a decent purse. Just can’t see any in here making and impact down the line.

POST RACE RECAP

The race came up pretty much as expected with the Super Screener top four selections making up the top five finishers. In the end, nothing happened here that would convince us this was a prep race with any type of impact down the line.

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/GG021415USA7.pdf

WINNER: Metaboss

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                              1st Call = 91; 2nd Call = 98; Final = 98

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:        1st Call = 91; 2nd Call = 96; Final = 92

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:               1st Call = 93; 2nd Call = 101; Final = 93

TRACK BIAS: Favored those that could come off the pace

TOUGH TRIP: None

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: None

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: D

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: D