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Preakness 2013 Wrap–Up: Oxbow Upsets at 15-1
- Updated: May 24, 2013
Slowest Preakness in 20 Years Blew Up Tickets…
While in the Derby we felt like we had all the right horses, but just missed on tickets – which allowed many readers to cash in – the Preakness wasn’t even close.
We share in the disappointment that some of you have expressed over the outcome of this year’s Preakness Super Screener. After hitting the Preakness trifecta three years in a row, the slowest pace Preakness in more than 20 years went counter to the swift race anticipated and our top two win contenders finished third and fourth as the race turned into a 2 furlong sprint. We’ve been analyzing the race to make sure we can learn from this year’s outcome and see where it fits historically. Looking at the last 20 Preakness runnings below, one thing is very clear. This was a VERY SLOW run race. How slow? Hitting the 1/2 mile marker in 48 3/5 seconds, Oxbow had run one full second slower than the slowest Preakness in the 19 years preceding.
Gary Stevens, aboard Oxbow, had stolen the race. Or it had been given to him when other speed horses did not push him.
1/4 mile | 1/2 mile | 3/4 mile | 1 mile | Finish | ||||
1994 | Tabasco Cat | Off Pace | 7 to 2 | 23 3/5 | 47 2/5 | 111 4/5 | 137 | 156 2/5 |
1995 | Timber Country | Closer | 9 to 5 | 23 1/5 | 47 1/5 | 110 4/5 | 135 2/5 | 154 2/5 |
1996 | Louis Quatorze | Wire | 8 to 1 | 23 | 46 1/5 | 109 4/5 | 134 4/5 | 153 2/5 |
1997 | Silver Charm | Off Pace | 3 to 1 | 22 4/5 | 46 4/5 | 110 2/5 | 135 2/5 | 154 4/5 |
1998 | Real Quiet | Closer | 5 to 2 | 23 1/5 | 46 2/5 | 111 | 135 4/5 | 154 3/5 |
1999 | Charismatic | Closer | 8 to 1 | 22 2/5 | 45 1/5 | 110 1/5 | 135 1/5 | 155 1/5 |
2000 | Red Bullet | Closer | 6 to 1 | 23 1/5 | 46 3/5 | 111 1/5 | 137 | 156 |
2001 | Point Given | Closer | 2 to 1 | 23 4/5 | 47 1/5 | 111 4/5 | 136 2/5 | 155 2/5 |
2002 | War Emblem | Presser | 5 to 2 | 22 4/5 | 46 | 110 3/5 | 136 1/5 | 156 1/5 |
2003 | Funny Cide | Presser | 9 to 5 | 23 1/5 | 47 | 111 3/5 | 136 2/5 | 155 3/5 |
2004 | Smarty Jones | Presser | 4 to 5 | 23 3/5 | 47 1/5 | 111 2/5 | 136 2/5 | 155 2/5 |
2005 | Afleet Alex | Closer | 3 to 1 | 23 | 46 | 110 3/5 | 136 | 155 |
2006 | Bernardini | Off Pace | 12 to 1 | 23 1/5 | 46 3/5 | 110 1/5 | 135 3/5 | 154 3/5 |
2007 | Curlin | Closer | 3 to 1 | 22 4/5 | 45 3/5 | 109 4/5 | 134 3/5 | 153 2/5 |
2008** | Big Brown | Presser | 1 to 5 | 23 2/5 | 46 4/5 | 110 4/5 | 135 3/5 | 154 4/5 |
2009 | Rachel Alexandra | Wire | 8 to 5 | 23 | 46 3/5 | 111 | 135 4/5 | 155 |
2010 | Lookin At Lucky | Off Pace | 5 to 2 | 22 4/5 | 46 2/5 | 111 1/5 | 136 1/5 | 155 2/5 |
2011 | Shackleford | Presser | 12 to 1 | 22 3/5 | 46 4/5 | 112 | 137 1/5 | 156 2/5 |
2012 | I’ll Have Another | Off Pace | 3 to 1 | 23 3/5 | 47 3/5 | 111 3/5 | 136 3/5 | 155 4/5 |
2013# | Oxbow | Wire | 15 to 1 | 23 4/5 | 48 3/5 | 113 1/5 | 138 | 157 2/5 |
**Fastest pace | ||||||||
#Slowest pace |
At this point, Orb, as well as the other closers had no shot. As we know, the rest is history.
As those who follow the races regularly know, “Pace Makes The Race”. If the horses in front are not going fast enough to be tired, then they are not going to stop.
The outcome was extremely disappointing for all of us following the Super Screener.
Where did we go wrong?
While the outcome was a difficult one (the Trifecta was a 1,000-1 outcome in a 9-horse race), we should have forseen at least the possibility that there would be not enough pace in the race.
Onward and Upward
With two legs of the Triple Crown behind us, it’s now on to the Belmont. With both Orb and Oxbow pointing to New York, as well as a formidable cast of challengers, we are anticipating a great opportunity to get back on top.