Florida Derby Post Race Analysis - Super Screener
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Florida Derby Post Race Analysis

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

G1 Florida Derby

Itsaknockout and Upstart, the 1-2 finishers in the troubled Fountain of Youth Stakes return to settle their differences prompted by an interrupted and pretty horrible trip for Itsaknockout imposed by the actual first place finisher of the race, Upstart. The Super Screener projects Itsaknockout the winner in this race in this the lightly raced colt’s 2nd race off the layoff.

Has Upstart peaked or did he just regress off that huge Holy Bull victory? This will be a great test to see if he moves forward or perhaps settles for a similar performance. Regardless, he remains one of the most accomplished horses on the Derby Trail and deserves respect.

Upstart and Itsaknockout are ranked 2nd and 12th, respectively, on the on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby rankings. http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.

Todd Pletcher has another interesting weapon in this race in the form of his undefeated-in-two starts colt, Materiality. This one looks talented enough but takes a big step up today. He has the preferred Super Screener energy distribution profile and has a decent shot to hit the Exacta.

Amy’s Flatter has been the Super Screener’s top Bomber pick in her last two starts and she did not disappoint including that good-looking 2nd place finish to Carpe Diem in the Tampa Bay Derby. She returns here in the Florida Derby and will once again be a contender under Itsaknockout and Upstart as she continues to improve with each race.

The 20-1+ Super Screener Bomber pick to hit the bottom of the Superfecta is Nick Zito’s charge, Quimet. This gelding is much better than his last troubled trip and certainly will be providing a ton of value under the top contenders.

The Super Screener will favor horses with previous experience at the 1 1/8 miles distance, a decent foundation with an ascending form cycle, a presser to off-the-pace energy distribution profile, experience on the Gulfstream track and strong works.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#4 Itsaknockout 7-5

#9 Upstart 2-1

BOARD HITTERS

#1 Ami’s Flatter

#7 Materiality

 

Let’s break down the G1 Florida Derby and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

 

Gulfstream Park – G1 Florida Derby – 1 1/8 Miles

Field Size = 9

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 1

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 3

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 5

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 94; Second Call = 103; Final = 103

Projected Pace:  First Call = 96; Second Call = 104; Final = 104

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Very balanced

Morning Line Favorite: Itsaknockout (CURRENT HRN RANKING: #12)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: Itsaknockout, Upstart, Ami’s Flatter

Hit-the-Board Bomber: Quimet

 

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = A-

 

Notes: Which horse will establish itself as King of Florida? Other than California, horses training in the Sunshine State have been producing quality outcomes which have yielded some of the better prep ratings. The Super Screener though is placing some doubt around Upstart’s ability to get the longer distances he is about to encounter.

 

POST RACE RECAP

Of all the pressers that will be among the 2015 Kentucky Derby entrants, Materiality will be bringing with him historically favorable lofty pace figures that are required of a presser or wire type to take down a 20 horse Derby field.  This was one very impressive performance on what has been a very tiring track surface as of late (which BRIS took into consideration when logging the final BRIS Pace and Speed Ratings).  While no notable bias was in play, clearly those with a latter energy distribution profiles were favored all day which makes Materiality’s performance that much more impressive and he accomplished this with a rail trip…not the place to be on Saturday.  So, while Upstart covered more ground, Materiality overcame the rail and a bit of a bias.  He has become now a major Kentucky Derby win contender.  This prep moves up to an A Super Screener Quality Rating.

 

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/GP032815USA14.pdf

 

WINNER: Materiality

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                                  1st Call = 94; 2nd Call = 103; Final = 103

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:        1st Call = 96; 2nd Call = 104: Final = 104

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:                1st Call = 105; 2nd Call = 115; Final = 105

TRACK BIAS: None, though the track was quite cuppy and did not favor wire-to-wire types

TOUGH TRIP: None

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: Materiality

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: A-

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: A