Louisiana Derby Post Race Analysis - Super Screener
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Louisiana Derby Post Race Analysis

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

G2 Louisiana Derby

The top four finishers of a salty edition of the Risen Star Stakes return to Fair Grounds to seek precious Kentucky Derby qualifier points in the G2 Louisiana Derby. The Super Screener rates the effort of second place finisher in the Risen Star, War Story, as the top performance in that key prep race. He got off to another slow start but showed some impressive courage as he chased down International Star, the winner of the Risen Star, but too late in the end. Look for a reversal in fortune today as Joe Talamo comes into town to help this gelding leave the gate without incident and move forward once again.

International Star may be the Rodney Dangerfield of this year’s Kentucky Derby contenders in that he keeps winning but gets no respect at the wagering window. He will be making his third start of the layoff and projects to move forward again today off that terrific grind-it-out win in the Risen Star. He has gradually progressed forward in each of his last 5 starts. Currently, International Star ranks 11th on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Derby rankings. http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.

The horse-without-a-break, Mr. Z and St. Joe Bay will set a faster-than-par pace with significant pressure on those two being exerted by Todd Pletcher’s charge, Stanford, from the inside. This should create a great set up for your mid-to-late energy distribution horses, War Story and International Star.

The Super Screener will favor horses coming out of the Risen Star with two-turn route experience, mid-to-late energy distribution profiles, favorable progressions in form cycle with a 2nd to 3rd start off a layoff being preferred.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#6 War Story 4-1

#9 International Star 2-1

BOARD HITTERS

#1 Stanford

#7 Keen Ice

 

Let’s break down the G2 Louisiana Derby and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

 

Fair Grounds – G2 Louisiana Derby – 1 1/8 Miles

Field Size = 9

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 1

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 4

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 5

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 92; Second Call = 100; Final = 100

Projected Pace:  First Call = 94; Second Call = 102; Final = 102

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Very balanced

Morning Line Favorite: International Star (CURRENT HRN RANKING: #11)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: War Story, International Star, Stanford

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick: None

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = B+

Notes: War Story is a bit under the radar right now and horses coming out of Louisiana are getting a bit overlooked so it will be interesting to see what type of pace/speed combination the winner of this race will produce. Just can’t see any other horse other than War Story or International Star winning this race.

POST RACE RECAP

There has been no other horse on the Kentucky Derby Trail that has experienced three perfect trips like International Star has.  Another perfectly executed ride by jockey Miguel Mena.  A softer-anticipated-pace materialized as Stanford shot to the lead and encountered no takers.  His effort here has to be seriously discounted.  Have to tip the hat to International Star as he showed that he was quite game in running down the leader but he did not really move forward off his prior race.  A serious contender for the top half of the Kentucky Derby field but doubtful now that he’ll be a major player come the first Saturday in May.  War Story was a big disappointment here with that anemic third place finish.  This prep takes a bit of a downgrade from our original Super Screener Quality Rating moving from a B+ to a B-.

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/FG032815USA11.pdf

WINNER: International Star

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                              1st Call = 92; 2nd Call = 100; Final = 100

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:        1st Call = 94; 2nd Call = 102: Final = 102

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:                1st Call = 90; 2nd Call = 95    ; Final = 99

TRACK BIAS: None

TOUGH TRIP: None

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: None

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: B+

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: B-