Gotham Post Race Analysis - Super Screener
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Gotham Post Race Analysis

 

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

G3 Gotham Stakes

The 2nd to 4th place finishers in the G3 Withers Stakes reunite to contest 7 other rivals including a three-horse Repole Stable coupling from the barn of Todd Pletcher. Of that coupled trio, the Super Screener gives the nod to the #1 Dontbetwithbruno due to the balanced energy distribution in two-turn routes and good form cycle pattern.   The pace in this one projects to be near par but with significant pressure. The field is pretty evenly matched with the Withers runners not necessarily sitting above the rest of this field. This one has the feel of a surprise winner emerging from the recent maiden graduate pool.

Favorites here will be #4 El Kabeir and #3 Classy Class seeking amends from tough losses at the hands of that eye-catching, troubled-trip late move of Far From Over. #4 El Kabeir is currently ranked #6 on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Derby rankings http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.

Those contesting the early pace include #1X Blame Jim, #3 Classy Class, #4 El Kabeir and #7 Toasting Master. Of that bunch all but #4 El Kabeir project to move forward. The top Super Screener choice will be a bit of a value play in the 4th place finisher of the Withers Stakes, #8 Tencendur. Super Screener projects this colt will benefit most by and respond best to the early pace pressure. Barn adds blinkers and the works since the Withers have been sizzling. Behind this one, the Super Screener favors the aforementioned #1 Dontbetwithbruno. Rounding out the top three, the Super Screener is landing on #3 Classy Class on a projected strong move forward off that layoff. This colt really needed that Withers race.

The Super Screener’s long shot bomber picks in here will be #6 Tiz Shea D the sprint stretcher out of the Bill Mott barn. The projection is that despite the lack of route experience, this colt could stick around for a price at a huge price due to pretty impressive total energy reserves. #2 Combat Diver is a likely “pick up the pieces” type that could bump up for the bottom of Trifecta’s and Superfecta’s.

At this stage of the prep season and given the pressured pace scenario of this affair, the Super Screener will favor horses with two-turn dirt route experience, balanced energy distribution profiles, previous success on the Aqueduct surface, favorable progressions in form cycle and strong recent works. Super Screener knocks go to #4 El Kabeir who may have peaked and will experience massive early pressure and #5 Lieutenant Colonel who may turn out to be a better sprinter.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#8 Tencendur 8-1

#1 Dontbetwithbruno 5-1
#3 Classy Class 7-2

BOARD HITTERS

#2 Combat Diver

#6 Tiz Shea D

#4 El Kabeir

Let’s break down the G3 Gotham Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Aqueduct– G3 Gotham Stakes – 1 1/16 Miles

Field Size = 10

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 1

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 3

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 4

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 91; Second Call = 98; Final = 98

Projected Pace:  First Call = 91; Second Call = 98; Final = 98

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Very heavily weighted to presser types

Morning Line Favorite: El Kabeir (CURRENT HRN RANKING: 6)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: Tencendur, Dontbetwithbruno, Classy Class

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Combat Diver and Tiz Shea D

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = C+

Notes:  Withers Stakes combatants, El Kabeir appears vulnerable as the favorite here but Classy Class projects to move forward. Race seems to be setting up for an “unknown” type with some balanced or late energy distribution.

POST RACE RECAP

El Kabeir showed another dimension coming from back of the back submit another win.  You have to like the fact that there appears to be no quit in this horse as he keeps rising to the occasion.  However, the pace was pretty wicked and the final pace and speed numbers El Kabeir submitted were average at best.  Therefore, we are downgrading this race to a C-.

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/AQU030715USA9.pdf

WINNER: El Kabier

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                                 1st Call = 91; 2nd Call = 98; Final = 98

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:        1st Call = 91; 2nd Call = 98: Final = 98

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:             1st Call = 105; 2nd Call = 106; Final = 95

TRACK BIAS: None though the track was listed as muddy

TOUGH TRIP: Classy Class bobbled at the start and briefly encountered traffic and the top of the stretch

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: None

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: C+

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: C-