Tampa Bay Derby Post Race Analysis - Super Screener
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Tampa Bay Derby Post Race Analysis

 

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

G2 Tampa Bay Derby Stakes

This one is shaping up to be quite a salty little prep race with the formidable and prohibitive favorite, #3 Carpe Diem making his 2015 debut and the top 4 finishers of the G3 Sam Davis Stakes returning to try and add more qualifying Kentucky Derby points. Winners of the big three preps this Saturday will earn 50 points and will assure themselves a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

The pace is this one will certainly be snappier than the crawl that characterized the Sam Davis Stakes, but yet it still projects to settle at something below par with modest pace pressure.

The prohibitive favorite will be the Pletcher-trained, second place finisher in the swift-paced Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He will be coming off a 4-month layoff and only got back to training as of mid-January. Work pattern since has been strong and he needs to catch up a bit and grab some valuable Kentucky Derby points right now. Currently, #3 Carpe Diem is ranked #11 on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Derby rankings while #2 Ocean Knight is ranked #7 http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.

Basically, the “speed” here comprises #3 Carpe Diem, #5 My Johnny Be Good and #6 Super Colossal. Your top late energy distribution types are #7 Great Stuff and #9 Danzig Moon. The Super Screener is projecting that #3 Carpe Diem is the deserved favorite and #2 Ocean Knight earns a shot at matching or building off that sharp last effort. The Super Screener is very bullish on the long shot #9 Danzig Moon out of the Mark Casse barn. That maiden win at Gulfstream was super impressive, especially since it came after the 100+ day layoff. He only matched his previous best and the sharp works only lend more confidence to projecting a major move forward in this prep. The Super Screener is going to give Ami’s Flatter another shot here as she regressed some off that strong Gulfstream Park effort and she gets blinkers and Lasix for the first time. Look for a much better showing today.

Most in here have some recency to their advantage which is key at this stage of the prep season. Carpe Diem gets a Super Screener knock for the long layoff but the quality advantage cannot be denied. The Super Screener will favor horses with two-turn dirt route experience, balanced energy distribution profiles with lower spreads between the BRIS second call pace and late pace figures, shippers, especially from GP, favorable progressions in form cycle and strong recent works.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#3 Carpe Diem 4-5

#9 Danzig Moon 14-1
#2 Ocean Knight 4-1

BOARD HITTERS

#4 Ami’s Flatter 15-1

#6 Super Colossal 18-1

Let’s break down the G2 Tampa Bay Derby Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Tampa Bay Downs– G2 Tampa Bay Derby – 1 1/16 Miles

Field Size = 9

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 2

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 4

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 7

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 92; Second Call = 100; Final = 100

Projected Pace:  First Call = 93; Second Call = 93; Final = 101

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Leans more to the presser types but balanced overall

Morning Line Favorite: Carpe Diem (CURRENT HRN RANKING: 11)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: Carpe Diem, Danzig Moon, Ocean Knight

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Ami’s Flatter

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = B

Notes:  Carpe Diem needs those precious Kentucky Derby qualifying points and will have to overcome the long layoff but he exudes quality and should get the job done. It will be interesting to see how the pace develops and if it will end up being much swifter than projected.  Our top bomber pick, Ami’s Flatter, did manage to run a good second but will also need to improve in a big way to contend with the top Derby prospects.

POST RACE RECAP

Carpe Diem submitted a useful 2015 debut race but he will need to really move forward next out to join the top Kentucky Derby contenders.  Always tough to play catch up at this point in the road to the Derby.  His victory was favored by a swift pace and a track that was favoring off the pace types all day.  The numbers came up a bit soft for this race and there were no other really impressive efforts so we are down grading this prep to a B- from the original Super Screener Quality rating of a B.

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/TAM030715USA11.pdf

WINNER: Carpe Diem

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                              1st Call = 92; 2nd Call = 100; Final = 100

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:        1st Call = 93; 2nd Call = 93: Final = 101

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:                1st Call = 102 ; 2nd Call =101; Final = 96

TRACK BIAS: Track was decidedly favoring off the pace types

TOUGH TRIP: None

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: Carpe Diem ran a solid 2015 debut race

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: B

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: B-

 

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