San Felipe Post Race Analysis - Super Screener
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San Felipe Post Race Analysis

 

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

G2 San Felipe Stakes

No question, this is one of the top preps of the year thus far and with “win and you’re in” 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points going to the winner, the battle will be fierce for top honors. Baffert’s pair will be super tough and it will be the “other” less favored colt, #1 Lord Nelson that the Super Screener will be ranking higher.

#2 Ocho Ocho Ocho is undefeated in three starts and was last seen taking down the G3 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes by the narrowest of margins over Mr. Z. He has been away from racing for over 100 days but works are super sharp, Mike Smith keeps the mount and of all of the Kentucky Derby contenders thus far, this one possesses the most impressive energy reserve and energy distribution profile. Will be very tough to beat here.

Baffert’s undefeated in four lifetime starts, #3 Dortmund, is as game as they come, and when tested, he responds and battles back which is a key Kentucky Derby contender quality. He gets another great test today but no question he is a top three contender. Currently, #2 Ocho Ocho Ocho and #3 Dortmund are ranked #14 and #1, respectively on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Derby rankings http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.

With the likes of #7 Bolo, #9 Sir Samson and even #2 Ocho Ocho Ocho and #3 Dortmund in the field, the pace projects to be super swift and well above par but fitting for this level of quality. Pace pressure, on the other hand, will be modest.

#1 Lord Nelson, as mentioned earlier, is being scored quite high by the Super Screener. The public will knock him for the lack of route success, but that G1 Front Runner was a super effort by any measure against stable mate monster, American Pharaoh. In the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club he lost all chance at the gate then was very wide around the far turn. Look for an outstanding effort by this underdog today.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#2 Ocho Ocho Ocho 5-2

#1 Lord Nelson 8-1
#3 Dortmund 1-1

BOARD HITTERS

#6 Bolo

#8 Pulmarack

#9 Sir Samson

Let’s break down the G2 San Felipe Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Santa Anita – G2 San Felipe Stakes – 1 1/16 Miles

Field Size = 9

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 3

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 4

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 4

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 92; Second Call = 100; Final = 100

Projected Pace:  First Call = 101; Second Call = 105; Final = 105

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Balanced

Morning Line Favorite: Dortmund (CURRENT HRN RANKING: 1)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: Ocho Ocho Ocho, Lord Nelson, Dortmund

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Sir Samson

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = A

Notes: This shapes up to be one of the strongest preps to date. It appears it is Baffert vs. Ocho Ocho Ocho with a little Bolo mystery to boot. The top three finishers here should do quite well in their final Kentucky Derby prep and this will me marked as a very key prep.

POST RACE RECAP

It has become quite clear now that the California-based horses have the upper hand coming into this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Depending how American Pharoah performs in the Rebel, the California line up is getting pretty scary and in addition to American Pharoah now includes, Dortmund, Texas Red and Prospect Park.  The latter submitted a running line that already qualifies him as a top win contender in the Kentucky Derby and his odds will be certainly near 20-1 if he makes the field.  We’ll be watching his next start very closely as he continues to improve with each and every start.  Dortmund did carve out a softer pace but turned it on with an impressive release of energy late good enough for a very strong BRIS Late Pace figure of 104.  He too is moving forward with each and every race.

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/SA030715USA7.pdf

WINNER: Dortmund

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                               1st Call = 92;   2nd Call = 100; Final = 100

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:        1st Call = 101; 2nd Call = 105: Final =105

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:                1st Call = 92;  2nd Call = 95;  Final = 102

TRACK BIAS: None

TOUGH TRIP: Bolo got into a bit of trouble early on but was out of contention regardless

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: Both Dortmund and Prospect Park showed their quality today and Prospect Park now emerges as the Super Screener top dark horse bomber for the Kentucky Derby.

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: A

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: A