San Vicente - Kentucky Derby 2015 prep - Super Screener
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San Vicente – Kentucky Derby 2015 prep

Texas Red - Kentucky Derby contender

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY 2015 PREPS

G2 San Vincente Stakes

Not a true Kentucky Derby 2015 prep race, the G2 San Vincente run at 7 furlongs on the Santa Anita dirt surface is another “win and get nothing” no Derby points stakes race. However, it is not without intrigue nor is it without Kentucky Derby trail impact for it marks the 2015 debut of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and an early Kentucky Derby favorite, Texas Red, a colt currently ranked #2 in the Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby 2015 Top 50 Contenders ranking http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.

This year’s edition of the San Vincente is projected to post a pace that is somewhat below par which will favor Bob Baffert’s Lord Nelson…the anticipated winner of this race. His Kentucky Juvenile Cup race was riddled with trouble throughout so rating him off that October sprint at San Anita back in October is preferred. If Texas Red is as good as they say he is, he’ll need to over come the softer pace, long layoff and switch back to the sprint distance. Sir Samson offers some value underneath at a big price. Serbian Syclone will be your pace leader and might be tough to pass if jockey Elvis Trujillo is able to dictate a modest pace.

The Super Screener will favor horses with superior pace figures and cut backs from a route to sprint along with top works. It will be tough to win this race if a horse is more than a couple of lengths off the early leader.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#1 Lord Nelson 2-1

#2 Serbian Syclone 3-1

BOARD HITTERS

#4 Texas Red 4-5

#8 Sir Samson 20-1

 

Let’s break down the San Vincente Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Field Size = 8

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 1

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 1

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 2

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 97; Second Call = 105

Projected Pace:  First Call = 97; Second Call = 101

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Favors horses with early energy distribution profiles

Morning Line Favorite: Texas Red (CURRENT HRN RANKING: 2)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: Lord Nelson, Serbian Syclone, Texas Red

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Sir Samson

 

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = B

 

Notes:  With no qualifying Kentucky Derby points, Texas Red does not need to win this race but rather use it as a heat in which he can shake off the rust as he points to bigger races ahead including the Santa Anita Derby. Lord Nelson probably prefers sprinting and finds the right race today.

POST RACE RECAP

While this race did now yield Kentucky Derby qualifying points, it served as a useful “shake off the rust” return to racing for Texas Red suggesting his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory was pace-aided but no fluke. Lord Nelson may not get the Classic distance but he sure showed his quality in overcoming a slow start against a modest but pressured pace.

 

 

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/SA020115USA6.pdf

 

WINNER: Lord Nelson

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                             1st Call = 97; 2nd Call = 105; Final = 99

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:       1st Call = 94; 2nd Call = 97; Final = 98

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:               1st Call = 88; 2nd Call = 90 Final = 82

TRACK BIAS: None

TOUGH TRIP: Lord Nelson actually hopped at the start losing valuable ground and then overcome a soft pace posting an impressive BRIS Late Pace rating of 107.

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: Lord Nelson

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: B

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: B-