Super Screening the 2015 Robert B. Lewis Stakes - Super Screener
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Super Screening the 2015 Robert B. Lewis Stakes

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

Saturday, February 7, 2015

G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes

This Saturday we get back on the Kentucky Derby 2015 points qualifiers with 10 points going to the winner of the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes and the winner of the G3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. The Robert B. Lewis Stakes features a compact field of six 3 year-olds going the 1 1/16 miles distance. One of Bob Baffert’s top Kentucky Derby contenders, #6 Dortmund will be the clear favorite here and deservedly so. He successfully held off a very determined #5 Firing Line in the soft-paced G1 Los Alamitos Futurity. With the short field and no super early energy distribution types, #1 Tizcano is the most likely candidate to take the field into the final turn and then If he can back it up enough, this first-time router may be able to hang on for a piece. Look for a tightly bunched group behind this pace setter with #4 Hero Ten All several lengths behind. Dortmund is a colt currently ranked #6 in the Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby Top 50 Contenders ranking .

The Super Screener will be putting a premium on route experience (especially two-turn routes), an energy distribution profile that is rather evenly spread and a bit of foundation against quality. Based on this criterion, the Super Screener assessment is as follows:

WIN CONTENDERS

#6 Dortmund 3-5

#2 Rock Shandy 9-2

BOARD HITTERS

#5 Firing Line 2-1

#1 Tizcano 10-1

 

Let’s break down the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Santa Anita– G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes

Field Size = 6

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 1

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 3

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 4

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 91; Second Call = 98; Final = 98

Projected Pace:  First Call = 93; Second Call = 97; Final = 101

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Favors horses with more evenly distributed energy profiles

Morning Line Favorite: Dortmund (CURRENT HRN RANKING: 6th)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: Dortmund, Rock Shandy, Firing Line

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Tizcano

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = A

 

POST RACE RECAP

Wow!  Now that was a horse race!  You have to really hand it to Dortmund.  This big colt has a lot of heart and just no quit in him.  He seems to really just get going in the late stages of these middle distance routes.  Firing Line was no slouch in this race either.  He engaged Dortmund coming out of the turn, passed him and dug in gamely to lose by a head.  Think about this, the rest of the field was more than 20 lengths behind this pair at the finish.  California-based horses are coming up pretty strong as they march their way toward Louisville.  We’ll look back at this prep as one that has Kentucky Derby significance.

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/SA020715USA5.pdf

WINNER: Dortmund

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                                1st Call = 91; 2nd Call = 98; Final = 98

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:       1st Call = 93; 2nd Call = 97; Final = 101

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:               1st Call = 95; 2nd Call = 105 Final = 1o1

TRACK BIAS: None

TOUGH TRIP: None

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: Dortmund

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: A

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: A